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Time-varying coefficient estimation in SURE models. Application to portfolio management

Author

Listed:
  • Isabel Casas

    (Basque Center for Applied Mathematics; and The University of Southern Denmark)

  • Eva Ferreira

    (University of the Basque Country)

  • Susan Orbe

    (University of the Basque Country)

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator for a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SURE) under very general conditions. Theoretical results together with a simulation study differentiates the cases for which the estimation of a tv-SURE outperforms the estimation of a Single Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SRE). The study shows that Zellner's results cannot be straightforwardly extended to the time-varying case. The tv-SURE is applied to the Fama and French five-factor model using data from four different international markets. Finally, we provide the estimation under cross-restriction and discuss a testing procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Casas & Eva Ferreira & Susan Orbe, 2017. "Time-varying coefficient estimation in SURE models. Application to portfolio management," CREATES Research Papers 2017-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2017-33
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    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/creates/rp/17/rp17_33.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Specification tests for time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 720-744.
    2. Dean Fantazzini & Julia Pushchelenko & Alexey Mironenkov & Alexey Kurbatskii, 2021. "Forecasting Internal Migration in Russia Using Google Trends: Evidence from Moscow and Saint Petersburg," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30, October.
    3. Isabel Casas & Xiuping Mao & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Reexamining financial and economic predictability with new estimators of realized variance and variance risk premium," CREATES Research Papers 2018-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Armin Pourkhanali & Jonathan Keith & Xibin Zhang, 2021. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models with Time-Varying Parameters: Estimation and Asymptotics," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Loïc Maréchal, 2021. "Do economic variables forecast commodity futures volatility?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1735-1774, November.
    6. E. Ferreira & S. Orbe & J. Ascorbebeitia & B. 'Alvarez Pereira & E. Estrada, 2021. "Loss of structural balance in stock markets," Papers 2104.06254, arXiv.org.
    7. Casas Villalba, Maria Isabel & Mao, Xiuping & Lopes Moreira Da Veiga, María Helena, 2020. "Adaptative predictability of stock market returns," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 31648, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying; Nonparametric; SURE; Five factor model; Asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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