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Can the new aid-growth models be replicated

  • Jensen, Peter Sandholt
  • Paldam, Martin


    (Department of Economics Aarhus, Denmark)

The recent literature on the aid-growth relation discusses two competing models: The Good Policy Model, where the key feature is policy times aid, and the Medicine Model, where the key feature is aid squared. Both have been reached on a sample of about 1/3 of the available data. We present a base model, to replicate both models on that data set. It is then replicated on as much of the available data as possible. Within the sample the Good Policy Model proves fragile, while the Medicine Model is more robust. Neither model replicates outside the original data sample. Further, we apply a semi-parametric regression technique to test for an unknown functional form of the aid-growth relation. It rejects that aid is statistically significant. Thus the evidence in favor of an aid-growth relationship - let alone a nonlinear one - is weak.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2003-17.

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Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2003-17
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  1. C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
  2. Charles C. Chang & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Luis Serven, 1998. "Measuring Aid Flows: A New Approach," Research Department Publications 4146, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  3. Paldam, Martin, 1997. "Dutch disease and rent seeking: The Greenland model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 591-614, September.
  4. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2003. "New Data, New doubts: A Comment on Burnside and Dollar's "Aid, Policies, and Growth" (2000)," NBER Working Papers 9846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Goergens, Tue & Paldam, Martin & Würtz, Allan, . "How does Public Regulation affect Growth?," Economics Working Papers 2003-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 1999. "Aid Effectiveness Disputed," MPRA Paper 62290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  8. R. Lensink & H. White, 2001. "Are There Negative Returns to Aid?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 42-65.
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