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Can the new aid-growth models be replicated

Author

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  • Jensen, Peter Sandholt
  • Paldam, Martin

    () (Department of Economics Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

The recent literature on the aid-growth relation discusses two competing models: The Good Policy Model, where the key feature is policy times aid, and the Medicine Model, where the key feature is aid squared. Both have been reached on a sample of about 1/3 of the available data. We present a base model, to replicate both models on that data set. It is then replicated on as much of the available data as possible. Within the sample the Good Policy Model proves fragile, while the Medicine Model is more robust. Neither model replicates outside the original data sample. Further, we apply a semi-parametric regression technique to test for an unknown functional form of the aid-growth relation. It rejects that aid is statistically significant. Thus the evidence in favor of an aid-growth relationship - let alone a nonlinear one - is weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, Peter Sandholt & Paldam, Martin, "undated". "Can the new aid-growth models be replicated," Economics Working Papers 2003-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2003-17
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    File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/afn/wp/03/wp03_17.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398, April.
    2. C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
    3. Charles C. Chang & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Luis Serven, 1998. "Measuring Aid Flows: A New Approach," Research Department Publications 4146, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Goergens, Tue & Paldam, Martin & Würtz, Allan, "undated". "How does Public Regulation affect Growth?," Economics Working Papers 2003-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Paldam, Martin, 1997. "Dutch disease and rent seeking: The Greenland model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 591-614, September.
    6. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2003. "New Data, New doubts: A Comment on Burnside and Dollar's "Aid, Policies, and Growth" (2000)," NBER Working Papers 9846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. R. Lensink & H. White, 2001. "Are There Negative Returns to Aid?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 42-65.
    8. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. McGillivray, Mark & Feeny, Simon & Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2005. "It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But That Depends?: 50 Years of Controversy over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series 054, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Fambon, Samuel, 2013. "Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Growth in Cameroon," WIDER Working Paper Series 124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA & A. K. GIRI & Madhu SEHRAWAT, 2016. "Foreign aid, macroeconomic policies and economic growth nexus in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 183-202, Winter.
    4. Philipp Harms & Michael Rauber, 2004. "Foreign aid and developing countries' creditworthiness," Working Papers 04.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    5. Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA & A. K. GIRI & Madhu SEHRAWAT, 2016. "Foreign aid, macroeconomic policies and economic growth nexus in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 183-202, Winter.
    6. Frank Adusah-Poku, 2016. "Which Form of Foreign Capital Inflows Enhance Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(10), pages 557-570, October.
    7. Mark McGillivray, 2005. "Réformer la formule : commentaires.Efficacité de l'aide et régimes de politiques économiques dans les pays receveurs," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 13(2), pages 119-127.
    8. Philipp Harms & Matthias Lutz, 2004. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Foreign Aid: A Survey," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    9. Tiwari Aviral Kumar, 2011. "Foreign Aid, FDI, Economic Freedom and Economic Growth in Asian Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-28, September.
    10. Bjørnskov, Christian & Schröder, Philipp J.H., 2013. "Are debt repayment incentives undermined by foreign aid?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1073-1091.
    11. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2006. "Controversies over the impact of development aid: it works; it doesn't; it can, but that depends …," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 1031-1050.
    12. Ismail O. FASANYA & Adegbemi B.O ONAKOYA, 2012. "Does Foreign Aid Accelerate Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis for Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 423-431.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aid effectiveness; growth; semi-parametric panel regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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