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Das Produktivitätspuzzle: Eine kritische Bewertung

In: Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie

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  • Roth, Felix

Abstract

Das Wachstum der Arbeitsproduktivität trägt maßgeblich zur Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und zum steigenden Wohlstand einer Volkswirtschaft bei. In den meisten fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften ist es von zentraler Bedeutung, den Lebensstandard einer Gesellschaft mit alternder Bevölkerung aufrechtzuerhalten. Trotz dieser immensen Bedeutung lässt sich feststellen, dass fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften wie die USA und die EU seit Beginn der Großen Rezession im Jahr 2007 einen deutlichen Rückgang der Wachstumsraten der Arbeitsproduktivität verzeichnet haben. Nach der Finanzkrise (2008-15/16) hat sich jene im Vergleich zur Vorkrisenzeit (1995-2004/07) mehr als halbiert. Obwohl in diesen Volkswirtschaften ab den 1970er-Jahren - mit Ausnahme der USA Mitte bis Ende der 1990er-Jahre - ein stetiger Rückgang des Arbeitsproduktivitätswachstums zu beobachten ist, bleibt das Ausmaß eines solchen Rückgangs seit Beginn der Großen Rezession (2008-2013/16) für die im Themengebiet forschenden Wissenschaftler aus zwei Gründen rätselhaft. Zum einen sorgt jener Rückgang für Irritation innerhalb der Forschung, da die Realzinsen nahe oder unter null lagen. Zum anderen ist der Rückgang rätselhaft, da er sich inmitten einer anhaltenden Revolution in der Informationsund Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT) sowie der künstlichen Intelligenz (KI) vollzog. Wirtschaftswissenschaftler haben versucht, dieses Rätsel unter verschiedenen facettenreichen Bezeichnungen zu erfassen, so etwa als 'The Secular Stagnation Puzzle', 'The Modern Productivity Paradox' oder einfach als 'The Productivity Puzzle'. Der folgende Beitrag beginnt mit einem Überblick über ein von Roth und Thum im Jahr 2013 entwickeltes Modell für das Wachstum der Arbeitsproduktivität, welches um immaterielles Kapital erweitert worden ist. Im Anschluss daran werden die Trends beim Wachstum der Arbeitsproduktivität von 1950 bis 2006 untersucht. Im dritten Teil wird auf den ausgeprägten Produktivitätsrückgang von 2007 bis 2015 eingegangen. Im vierten Teil wird das "Produktivitätspuzzle" kritisch diskutiert, indem die Schlüsselrolle immaterieller Werte, bezogen auf das Wachstum der Arbeitsproduktivität, herausgearbeitet wird. Sodann befasst sich der Beitrag mit aktuellen Fragen, die sich anlässlich der COVID- 19-Krise ergeben. Zwei Hauptschlussfolgerungen bilden den Abschluss des Beitrags.

Suggested Citation

  • Roth, Felix, 2021. "Das Produktivitätspuzzle: Eine kritische Bewertung," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie, volume 6, pages 61-82, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwich:281009
    DOI: 10.15460/hup.254.1924
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