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The Duverger-Demsetz Perspective on Electoral Competitiveness and Fragmentation: With Application to the Canadian Parliamentary System, 1867–2011

In: The Political Economy of Social Choices

Author

Listed:
  • J. Stephen Ferris

    (Carleton University)

  • Stanley L. Winer

    (Carleton University)

  • Bernard Grofman

    (University of California)

Abstract

We combine consideration of Duverger’s Law (Political parties: Their organization and activity in the modern state. London: Methuen, 1954) with Demsetz’s (J Law Econ 11:55–65, 1968) theory of natural monopoly to provide a novel perspective on the meaning and measurement of electoral competitiveness in a single member district, plurality rule electoral system. In the Duverger-Demsetz view we develop, the degree of competition is determined by the contestability of elections. Contestability declines with party fragmentation, and so an increase in the effective number of parties above the long run level of 2 predicted by Duverger’s ‘Law’ for plurality based single seat elections signals a decline in competitiveness. This argument runs contrary to the view, sometimes expressed in empirical studies of elections and public policy, that more candidates or parties, each with a smaller vote share reflects a more competitive environment. Using the history of the Canadian parliamentary system, we provide qualified support for the Duverger-Demsetz perspective by studying the relationship between the concentration of vote shares and a new index of electoral contestability. Extension of the argument to proportional electoral systems is also considered.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer & Bernard Grofman, 2016. "The Duverger-Demsetz Perspective on Electoral Competitiveness and Fragmentation: With Application to the Canadian Parliamentary System, 1867–2011," Studies in Political Economy, in: Maria Gallego & Norman Schofield (ed.), The Political Economy of Social Choices, pages 93-122, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpocp:978-3-319-40118-8_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-40118-8_5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen FERRIS & Marcel-Cristian VOIA, 2022. "Do Rival Political Parties Enforce Government Efficiency? Evidence from Canada, 1867 - 2021," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2948, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    2. Pinaki Chakraborty & Bharatee B. Dash & J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer, 2015. "The Privateness of Public Expenditure with Application to Indian States," Carleton Economic Papers 15-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    3. Bharatee Bhusana Dash & J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer, 2018. "Measuring Electoral Competitiveness: With Application to the Indian States," Carleton Economic Papers 18-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    4. Stanley L. Winer & J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash & Pinaki Chakraborty, 2021. "Political competitiveness and the private–public structure of public expenditure: a model and empirics for the Indian States," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1430-1471, December.
    5. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Christian Voia, 2019. "Elections, Economic Outcomes and Policy in Canada: 1870 - 2015," Carleton Economic Papers 19-11, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    6. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2021. "Elections, economic outcomes and policy choices in Canada: 1870 – 2015," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(16), pages 1840-1855, April.
    7. Zhihao Yu, 2022. "Why Are Tobacco and Alcohol Control Policies So Different?–A Political-Economy Explanation," Carleton Economic Papers 22-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    8. Ferris, J. Stephen & Voia, Marcel-Cristian, 2023. "Do rival political parties enforce government efficiency? Evidence from Canada 1867–2021," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Somdeep Chatterjee & Pushkar Maitra & Manhar Manchanda, 2024. "The Relevant Third: Threat of Coalition and Economic Development," Monash Economics Working Papers 2024-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    10. J Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer, 2018. "Political Competitiveness and Fiscal Structure: A Time Series Analysis. Canada, 1870 - 2015," CESifo Working Paper Series 7220, CESifo.
    11. Bharatee Bhusana DASH & Stephen FERRIS & Marcel-Cristian VOIA, 2022. "Inequality, Transaction Costs and Voter Turnout: evidence from Canadian Provinces and Indian States," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2953, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    12. J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer & Derek Olmstead, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Political Party Equilibrium: The Evolution of ENP in Canada, 1870–2015," Carleton Economic Papers 18-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 31 Jul 2019.
    13. J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2021. "Does Income Inequality enter into an Aggregate Model of Voter Turnout? Evidence from Canada and Indian States," Carleton Economic Papers 21-09, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contestability; Demsetz; Duverger; Economic competition; Electoral competition; Marginal seats; Safe seats; Volatility adjusted vote margin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design

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