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The Measurement of Party Competition

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  • Elkins, David J.

Abstract

Most measures of party competition were designed for the United States or other two-party systems. The measure proposed here is intended for multiparty as well as two-party systems. It is a formalization of the notion of uncertainty: election outcomes are competitive to the degree we are uncertain who will win. By ascertaining through survey research the degree of party loyalty over time, one can calculate the chances of alternative outcomes in hypothetical replications of any given election. Since the chance that a losing party might have won is one measure of the importance of that party, this approach to party competition also provides a precise indicator of the number of parties in the system (i.e., whether it is two-party, three party, etc.). The method is applied here to data on Canadian federal elections in 1965 and 1968.

Suggested Citation

  • Elkins, David J., 1974. "The Measurement of Party Competition," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 682-700, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:68:y:1974:i:02:p:682-700_11
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    Cited by:

    1. Stanley L. Winer & J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash & Pinaki Chakraborty, 2021. "Political competitiveness and the private–public structure of public expenditure: a model and empirics for the Indian States," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1430-1471, December.
    2. Konstantinos Matakos & Orestis Troumpounis & Dimitrios Xefteris, 2015. "Turnout and Polarization Under Alternative Electoral Systems," Studies in Political Economy, in: Norman Schofield & Gonzalo Caballero (ed.), The Political Economy of Governance, edition 127, pages 335-362, Springer.
    3. Carina Bischoff, 2013. "Electorally unstable by supply or demand?—an examination of the causes of electoral volatility in advanced industrial democracies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 537-561, September.
    4. J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer & Bernard Grofman, 2016. "The Duverger-Demsetz Perspective on Electoral Competitiveness and Fragmentation: With Application to the Canadian Parliamentary System, 1867–2011," Studies in Political Economy, in: Maria Gallego & Norman Schofield (ed.), The Political Economy of Social Choices, pages 93-122, Springer.
    5. Bharatee Bhusana, Ferris, J Stephen Dash & Stanley L. Winer, 2018. "Measuring Electoral Competitiveness: With Application to the Indian States," CESifo Working Paper Series 7216, CESifo.
    6. André Corrêa d’Almeida & Paulo Reis Mourão, 2015. "The Irrelevance of Political Parties’ Differences for Public Finances - Evidence from Public Deficit and Debt in Portugal (1974 – 2012)," NIPE Working Papers 11/2015, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. Jennifer Raymond Dresden, 2017. "From combatants to candidates: Electoral competition and the legacy of armed conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 240-263, May.
    8. Kaare Strom, 1989. "Inter-party Competition in Advanced Democracies," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 1(3), pages 277-300, July.
    9. Jean-François Caulier, 2011. "The Interpretation of the Laakso-Taagepera Effective Number of Parties," Post-Print halshs-00565315, HAL.
    10. Albert Solé-Ollé, 2006. "The effects of party competition on budget outcomes: Empirical evidence from local governments in Spain," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 145-176, January.
    11. Albert Solé Ollé, 2005. "The effects of party competition on budget outcomes: Empirical evidence from local governments in Spain," Working Papers 2005/2, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    12. Stefano Bartolini, 2000. "Collusion, Competition and Democracy," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 12(1), pages 33-65, January.
    13. Albert Solé-Ollé, 2006. "The effects of party competition on budget outcomes: Empirical evidence from local governments in Spain," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 145-176, January.

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