India's agrifood system: Structural features and policy priorities

Agrifood systems contribute one-third of India’s gross domestic product (GDP). These systems include both on- and off-farm components: The off-farm sector accounts for 34 percent of agrifood systems GDP in low-income states, 44 percent in middle-income states, and 88 percent in high-income states. • Agrifood systems transformation is critical to meeting development goals, but these goals cannot all be met by prioritizing a single value chain. A more pragmatic strategy involves selecting a portfolio of complementary value chains to support multiple development priorities. • Using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis model, this chapter examines simulated impacts of productivity-led growth across 14 value chains at the national and state levels, with a focus on the state of Odisha. It measures how these impacts contribute to four development outcomes: poverty reduction, employment generation, dietary improvement, and economic growth. • Impacts from these value chains differ across India and Odisha: Nationally, wheat, rice, and pulses have the greatest impact, while in Odisha, poultry, milk, and cotton deliver stronger overall benefits. • National- and state-level development priorities often diverge, complicating resource allocation and slowing progress. Strengthening coordination between federal and state governments is critical for inclusive and sustainable agrifood system transformation.