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Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets

In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007

Author

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  • Katerina Smidkova

Abstract

The introductory paper defines three stages of Czech inflation targeting and defines possible factors behind inflation deviations from inflation targets in 1998-2007. The paper also summarises the findings of analyses by CNB experts, which are presented in further chapters of the volume. According to these findings, deviations from targets cannot be explained by one factor alone. During various stages of inflation targeting, individual factors were of varying importance. Anti-inflationary shocks were the most frequent reason for deviations. Another significant reason – especially in the initial and advanced targeting stages – was the prognostic system. The decision making process for interest rates only contributed to undershot targets in the initial stage, during which it was necessary to build up the credibility of the new monetary policy strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Katerina Smidkova, 2008. "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 1, pages 10-17 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:01
    as

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    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/evaluation_infl_targets/download/evaluation_inf_targets_1998-2007_chap_01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katerina Smidkova & Jiri Behounek & Tibor Hledik & Josef Jilek & Miroslav Kostel & Ivana Matalikova & Dana Rottova & Jana Stankova, 1998. "Koruna Exchange Rate Turbulence in May 1997," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 1998/02, Czech National Bank.
    2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.
    3. Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova & Viktor Kotlan & David Navratil, 2007. "Inflation Targeting and Communication: Should the Public Read Inflation Reports or Tea Leaves?," Working Papers 2007/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; monetary policy; inflation targeting;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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