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Determinants of Asia-Pacific government bond yields

In: Asia-Pacific fixed income markets: evolving structure, participation and pricing

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  • Mikhail Chernov
  • Drew Creal
  • Peter Hördahl

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic properties of Asia-Pacific local currency sovereign bond yields and risk premiums. We focus, in particular, on the properties and interactions of components of bond risk premiums that are due to credit spreads and exchange rates. We find that local variables are significant in explaining the dynamics of these components. In particular, the credit risk premium component is, unsurprisingly, mostly affected by a factor that reflects local sovereign credit risk, while the currency risk premium component is affected by the credit factor as well as by the difference in the interest rate level between the local and US yield curves. Moreover, we find that, quantitatively, local variables play a large role in explaining the variation in the credit and currency risk premium components.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Chernov & Drew Creal & Peter Hördahl, 2019. "Determinants of Asia-Pacific government bond yields," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asia-Pacific fixed income markets: evolving structure, participation and pricing, volume 102, pages 29-39, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:102-05
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    1. Seunghoon Na & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe & Vivian Yue, 2018. "The Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1773-1819, July.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    3. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    5. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
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