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Entwicklung der Altersarmut bis 2036: Trends, Risikogruppen und Politikszenarien

Author

Listed:
  • Haan, Peter
  • Stichnoth, Holger
  • Blömer, Maximilian
  • Buslei, Hermann
  • Geyer, Johannes
  • Krolage, Carla
  • Müller, Kai-Uwe

Abstract

Wie entwickelt sich das Risiko für Altersarmut in der nahen bis mittleren Frist? Welche Gruppen werden besonders von Altersarmut betroffen sein? Welche Auswirkungen haben derzeit diskutierte Rentenreformen auf die Entwicklung der Altersarmut? Es ist das Ziel dieser Simulationsstudie, Antworten auf diese zentralen sozialpolitischen Fragen zu geben. Um das Armutsrisiko zu messen, wird in dieser Analyse das gesamte Einkommen nach Steuern im Haushaltskontext auf Basis von repräsentativen Haushaltsdaten simuliert und geschätzt, wie sich das Armutsrisiko bis zum Jahr 2036 entwickeln wird. In den Simulationen werden die Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung (GRV)/Beamtenversorgung, Betriebliche Altersvorsorge (BAV), Lohneinkommen und private Absicherung (z. B. Riester- und Rürup-Rente, Lebensversicherung und weitere Formen von Geldvermögen) sowie Steuern, Sozialabgaben und Transfers modelliert. [...]

Suggested Citation

  • Haan, Peter & Stichnoth, Holger & Blömer, Maximilian & Buslei, Hermann & Geyer, Johannes & Krolage, Carla & Müller, Kai-Uwe, 2017. "Entwicklung der Altersarmut bis 2036: Trends, Risikogruppen und Politikszenarien," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 168442.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewexp:168442
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julia Simonson & Nadiya Kelle & Laura Romeu Gordo & Markus M. Grabka & Anika Rasner & Christian Westermeier, 2012. "Ostdeutsche Männer um 50 müssen mit geringeren Renten rechnen," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(23), pages 3-13.
    2. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    3. Viktor Steiner & Johannes Geyer, 2010. "Erwerbsbiografien und Alterseinkommen im demografischen Wandel - eine Mikrosimulationsstudie für Deutschland: Forschungsschwerpunkt: Wirkungsanalyse des Alterssicherungssystems," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 55, number pbk55, January.
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    1. Robert Fenge & Jochen Pimpertz & Tim Köhler-Rama & Reiner Holznagel & Felix Welti & Martin Werding & Uwe Fachinger & Karl-Heinz Paqué, 2019. "Grand Coalition Pension Package: Secure and Fair or Unsound and Unaffordable?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(02), pages 05-31, January.
    2. Bernard, René & Tzamourani, Panagiota & Weber, Michael, 2022. "Climate change and individual behavior," Discussion Papers 01/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Till van Treeck & Judith Niehues & Galina Kolev & Piotr Pysz & Peter Hampe & Andreas Peichl & Marc Stöckli & Georg Cremer, 2018. "How Fair Is the World? – Social Inequality and Economic Growth," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(15), pages 03-25, August.
    4. Clemens Fuest & Christa Hainz & Volker Meier & Martin Werding, 2019. "Staatsfonds für eine effiziente Altersvorsorge: Welche innovativen Lösungen sind möglich?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(14), pages 03-08, July.

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