IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/ces/ifodrs/57.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Langfristige Prognose der Einnahmeentwicklung für den Landeshaushalt des Freistaates Sachsen bis zum Jahr 2025 : Gutachten im Auftrag des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums der Finanzen

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Steinbrecher
  • Christian Thater
  • Marcel Thum
  • Oskar Krohmer

Abstract

This project presents a continuation of the revenue forecast of the Free State of Saxony until 2025. For sustainable regional politics, more transparency in political decision-making, and especially in the current financial and economic crisis, a continuously updated revenue forecast is of great importance. The population in the East German states is declining and consequently also the transfers from the federal fiscal equalization scheme. Moreover, the transfer payments for East Germany since the German reunification will end 2019. All of these three facts lead to decreasing state revenues. The aim of the project is thus to estimate the extent of the decline and to formulate recommendations for the fiscal policy in the Free State of Saxony This project presents a continuation of the revenue forecast of the Free State of Saxony until 2025. For sustainable regional politics, more transparency in political decision-making, and especially in the current financial and economic crisis, a continuously updated revenue forecast is of great importance. The population in the East German states is declining and consequently also the transfers from the federal fiscal equalization scheme. Moreover, the transfer payments for East Germany since the German reunification will end 2019. All of these three facts lead to decreasing state revenues. The aim of the project is thus to estimate the extent of the decline and to formulate recommendations for the fiscal policy in the Free State of Saxony.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Steinbrecher & Christian Thater & Marcel Thum & Oskar Krohmer, 2010. "Langfristige Prognose der Einnahmeentwicklung für den Landeshaushalt des Freistaates Sachsen bis zum Jahr 2025 : Gutachten im Auftrag des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums der Finanzen," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 57, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodrs:57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifo_Dresden_Studien_57.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and Growth in the OECD," CEPR Discussion Papers 1755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    4. Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Human Capital in Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, March.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2009: Im Sog der Weltrezession," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(08), pages 03-81, April.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    8. Sebastian Döll & Wolfgang Nagl & Joachim Ragnitz & Christian Thater, 2009. "Mittelfristige Einkommensentwicklung in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 48, October.
    9. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1997. "Stabilization Policy, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 152-166, April.
    10. Isabel Busom, 2000. "An Empirical Evaluation of The Effects of R&D Subsidies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 111-148.
    11. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    12. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    13. Bruno Van Pottelsberghe & Dominique Guellec, 1999. "Does government support stimulates private R&D," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6231, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Baffes, John & Shah, Anwar, 1998. "Productivity of Public Spending, Sectoral Allocation Choices, and Economic Growth," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 291-303, January.
    15. Abigail Barr, 1995. "The missing factor: entrepreneurial networks, enterprises and economic growth in Ghana," CSAE Working Paper Series 1995-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997. "Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
    17. Levy, David M., 1990. "Estimating the impact of government R&D," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 169-173, February.
    18. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1995. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-110, October.
    19. Barro, Robert J, 2000. "Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
    20. Steven P. Cassou & Kevin J. Lansing, 1999. "Fiscal Policy and Productivity Growth in the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1215-1226, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Eck & Joachim Ragnitz & Johannes Steinbrecher & Christian Thater, 2011. "Haushaltskonsolidierung, Infrastruktur und Standortwettbewerb : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bayerischen Staatsministeriums für Wirtschaft, Infrastruktur, Verkehr und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 58, October.
    2. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "The growth effects of education in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3843-3852, September.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 231-274, November.
    4. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
    5. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    6. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Mark V. JANIKAS & Sergio J. REY, 2008. "On The Relationships Between Spatial Clustering, Inequality, And Economic Growth In The United States : 1969-2000," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 13-34.
    8. Vatthanamixay Chansomphou & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "Foreign aid, foreign direct investment and economic growth of Lao PDR," IDEC DP2 Series 1-2, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    9. Sebastian George, ENE & Danut, CHILAREZ, 2015. "The Influence Of Government Spending, Financial, Monetary And Fiscal Policies On The Gdp. Comparative Analysis Romania – Lithuania," Management Strategies Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 29(3), pages 6-15.
    10. Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Role of Domestic Financial Sector," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:18, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    11. Norman Gemmell, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Growth Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Juan Brida & Nicolás Garrido & Francesco Mureddu, 2014. "Italian economic dualism and convergence clubs at regional level," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 439-456, January.
    13. Mohammad Ashraf & Khan A. Mohabbat, 2010. "Output Convergence and the Role of Research and Development," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 35-71, May.
    14. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, Victoria, 2002. "Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-028/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Apr 2003.
    15. Philippe Aghion, 2004. "Growth and Development: A Schumpeterian Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, May.
    16. Massimiliano Affinito, 2011. "Convergence clubs, the euro-area rank and the relationship between banking and real convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 809, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & McNab, Robert M., 2003. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1597-1616, September.
    18. Jan Fagerberg & Maryann Feldman & Martin Srholec, 2011. "Technological Dynamics and Social Capability: Comparing U.S. States and European Nations," Working Papers on Innovation Studies 20111114, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
    19. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic & Yongzheng Liu, 2011. "Direct versus Indirect Taxation: Trends, Theory, and Economic Significance," Chapters, in: Emilio Albi & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Boachie, Micheal Kofi, 2015. "Effect of health on economic growth in Ghana:An application of ARDL bounds test to cointegration," MPRA Paper 67201, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifodrs:57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.