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Future Caregiving Responsibilities, Employment Uncertainties, and Expected Childbearing Behavior: Survey Experimental Evidence from Germany

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  • Ramos, Vincent Jerald
  • Kreyenfeld, Michaela
  • Alonso-Perez, Enrique
  • Gellert, Paul
  • Heisig, Jan Paul
  • O’Sullivan, Julie Lorraine

Abstract

In societies experiencing declining birth rates, understanding factors that influence childbearing decisions is of interest. We used a factorial survey experiment to investigate how scenarios of future caregiving responsibilities toward aging parents and employment uncertainties shape the expected childbearing behavior of a fictitious couple. Respondents from the nationally representative German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) ( n = 1,750) were randomly assigned to five vignettes, each describing a hypothetical couple with varying levels of caregiving responsibilities towards an aging parent and employment uncertainties. Respondents subsequently rated their expectations about the hypothetical couple’s childbearing behavior within the next three years using an 11-point scale. Results show that high caregiving responsibilities and dual employment uncertainties reduce expected childbearing behavior by 2.8 and 1.9 units respectively, compared to when these are absent. The negative effect of high caregiving responsibilities is more pronounced among women, while respondents’ own caregiving and employment experiences do not moderate these effects. These results demonstrate how both future-oriented caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties alter expectations about family formation and highlight the scenarios that are regarded as more or less favorable for childbearing.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramos, Vincent Jerald & Kreyenfeld, Michaela & Alonso-Perez, Enrique & Gellert, Paul & Heisig, Jan Paul & O’Sullivan, Julie Lorraine, 2025. "Future Caregiving Responsibilities, Employment Uncertainties, and Expected Childbearing Behavior: Survey Experimental Evidence from Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 44, pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:325699
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-025-09969-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Auer & Natalia Danzer, 2016. "Fixed-Term Employment and Fertility: Evidence from German Micro Data," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(4), pages 595-623.
    2. Francesca Modena & Fabio Sabatini, 2012. "I would if I could: precarious employment and childbearing intentions in Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 77-97, March.
    3. Daniela Bellani & Daniele Vignoli & Bruno Arpino, 2021. "Time preferences and fertility: Evidence from Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(50), pages 1185-1228.
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