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Solid support or secret dissent? A list experiment on preference falsification during the Russian war against Ukraine

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  • Chapkovski, Philipp
  • Schaub, Max

Abstract

Do individuals reveal their true preferences when asked for their support for an ongoing war? This research note presents the results of a list experiment implemented in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Our experiment allows us to estimate the extent of preference falsification with regard to support for the war by comparing the experimental results with a direct question. Our data comes from an online sample of 3000 Russians. Results show high levels of support for the war and significant levels of preference falsification: when asked directly, 71% of respondents support the war, while this share drops to 61% when using the list experiment. Preference falsification is particularly pronounced among individuals using TV as a main source of news. Our results imply that war leaders can pursue peace without fearing a large popular backlash, but also show that high levels of support for war can be sustained even once the brutality of the war has become clear.

Suggested Citation

  • Chapkovski, Philipp & Schaub, Max, 2022. "Solid support or secret dissent? A list experiment on preference falsification during the Russian war against Ukraine," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 1-6.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:263913
    DOI: 10.1177/20531680221108328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bryn Rosenfeld & Kosuke Imai & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2016. "An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(3), pages 783-802, July.
    2. Eady, Gregory, 2017. "The Statistical Analysis of Misreporting on Sensitive Survey Questions," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 241-259, April.
    3. Blair, Graeme & Imai, Kosuke, 2012. "Statistical Analysis of List Experiments," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 47-77, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles D. Coleman & Ilona Sologoub, 2022. "The Cost of War: A Comment and a Reply," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(5), pages 337-338, September.
    2. Aluykov, Maxim & Gilev, Aleksei & Vyrskaia, Marina & Rumiantseva, Aleksandra & Zavadskaya, Margarita, 2024. "Panel study of Russian public opinion and attitudes (PROPA). Wave 1. Report," OSF Preprints ek8wy, Center for Open Science.
    3. Mikael Elinder & Oscar Erixson & Olle Hammar, 2024. "How has the war in Ukraine affected Russian sentiments?," Papers 2410.00663, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

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