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A methodology for modeling VVT risks and costs

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  • Avner Engel
  • Miryam Barad

Abstract

The cost of large systems' Verification, Validation, and Testing (VVT) is in the neighborhood of 40% of the total life cycle cost. The cost associated with systems' failures is even more dramatic, often exceeding 10% of industrial organizations turnover. There is a great potential benefit in streamlining and optimizing the VVT process. The first step in accomplishing this aim is to define a VVT strategy and then to quantify the cost and risk associated with carrying it out. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies for risk and cost monitoring for VVT and proposes a novel approach for modeling VVT strategies as decision problems. A quantitative VVT process and risk model is proposed. Due to the nondeterministic nature of risk, simulation is used to generate distributions of possible costs, schedules, and risk outcomes. These distributions represent a probabilistic approach and are analyzed in relation to impact events. The model provides means to explore different VVT strategies for optimizing relevant decision parameters. To demonstrate the proposed procedure the paper describes a case study depicting a planned avionics suite upgrade program for a fighter aircraft. Some simplified partial quantitative results are also presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 6: 135–151, 2003

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  • Avner Engel & Miryam Barad, 2003. "A methodology for modeling VVT risks and costs," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 135-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:syseng:v:6:y:2003:i:3:p:135-151
    DOI: 10.1002/sys.10040
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    1. Avner Engel & Shalom Shachar, 2006. "Measuring and optimizing systems' quality costs and project duration," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(3), pages 259-280, September.
    2. Markus Hoppe & Avner Engel & Shalom Shachar, 2007. "SysTest: Improving the verification, validation, and testing process— Assessing six industrial pilot projects," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), pages 323-347, December.
    3. Meir Tahan & Joseph Z. Ben‐Asher, 2005. "Modeling and analysis of integration processes for engineering systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 62-77.
    4. M Barad & A Engel, 2006. "Optimizing VVT strategies: a decomposition approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(8), pages 965-974, August.
    5. Edouard Kujawski & Diana Angelis, 2010. "Monitoring risk response actions for effective project risk management," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 353-368, December.

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