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Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety

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  • Rogerson, Ellen C.
  • Lambert, James H.

Abstract

Factor hierarchies have been widely used in the literature to represent the view of an expert of what factors most contribute to reliability or safety. The methods for rating and aggregating the influences across a set of expert-elicited factors to risk or reliability are well known as multiple criteria decision analysis. This paper describes a method for distinguishing levels of risk across a set of locations via the use of multiple factor hierarchies. The method avoids averaging across experts and is thus useful for situations where experts disagree and where an absence of expert consensus on the causative or contributing factors is important information for risk management. A case study demonstrates using seven expert perspectives on the airport-specific factors that can contribute to runway incursions. The results are described for eighty towered airports in the US. The expert perspectives include differing relative emphases across the following set of factors: airport geometry, operations, weather, geography, and days since last safety review. Future work is suggested to include human factors issues as pilot-and-controller communications styles at airports.

Suggested Citation

  • Rogerson, Ellen C. & Lambert, James H., 2012. "Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 22-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:103:y:2012:i:c:p:22-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.03.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dustin C.S. Wagner & Kash Barker, 2014. "Statistical methods for modeling the risk of runway excursions," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 885-901, August.
    2. Skorupski, Jacek, 2015. "The risk of an air accident as a result of a serious incident of the hybrid type," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 37-52.
    3. Wang, Tai-Ran & Pedroni, Nicola & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Identification of protective actions to reduce the vulnerability of safety-critical systems to malevolent acts: A sensitivity-based decision-making approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 9-18.
    4. T. R. Wang & N. Pedroni & E. Zio & V. Mousseau, 2020. "Identification of Protective Actions to Reduce the Vulnerability of Safety‐Critical Systems to Malevolent Intentional Acts: An Optimization‐Based Decision‐Making Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 565-587, March.
    5. Trucco, Paolo & De Ambroggi, Massimiliano & Chiara Leva, Maria, 2015. "Topological risk mapping of runway overruns: A probabilistic approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 433-443.
    6. Ellen C. Rogerson & James H. Lambert & Alexander F. Johns, 2013. "Runway safety program evaluation with uncertainties of benefits and costs," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 523-539, May.
    7. Almutairi, Ayedh & Collier, Zachary A. & Hendrickson, Daniel & Palma-Oliveira, José M. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2019. "Stakeholder mapping and disruption scenarios with application to resilience of a container port," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 219-232.
    8. Sai Ho Chung & Hoi Lam Ma & Hing Kai Chan, 2017. "Cascading Delay Risk of Airline Workforce Deployments with Crew Pairing and Schedule Optimization," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1443-1458, August.

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