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Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

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  • M. F. Leung
  • J. R. Santos
  • Y. Y. Haimes

Abstract

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post‐eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision‐making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade‐off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision‐making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency—the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)—and other related organizations can use for their decision‐making processes.

Suggested Citation

  • M. F. Leung & J. R. Santos & Y. Y. Haimes, 2003. "Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(6), pages 1323-1335, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:23:y:2003:i:6:p:1323-1335
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2003.00404.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    2. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    3. Keeney,Ralph L. & Raiffa,Howard, 1993. "Decisions with Multiple Objectives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438834.
    4. Yacov Y. Haimes & Stan Kaplan & James H. Lambert, 2002. "Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 383-397, April.
    5. Yacov Y. Haimes, 1991. "Total Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 169-171, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth G. Crowther & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2005. "Application of the inoperability input—output model (IIM) for systemic risk assessment and management of interdependent infrastructures," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(4), pages 323-341.
    2. Altay, Nezih & Green III, Walter G., 2006. "OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 475-493, November.
    3. Brett D. Dickey & Joost R. Santos, 2011. "Risk Analysis of Safety Service Patrol (SSP) Systems in Virginia," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1859-1871, December.
    4. Joanna Resurreccion & Joost R. Santos, 2012. "Multiobjective Prioritization Methodology and Decision Support System for Evaluating Inventory Enhancement Strategies for Disrupted Interdependent Sectors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1673-1692, October.
    5. Hairui Wei & Ming Dong & Shuyu Sun, 2010. "Inoperability input‐output modeling (IIM) of disruptions to supply chain networks," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 324-339, December.

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