IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v40y2020i5p957-980.html

Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Author

Listed:
  • Weiliang Qiao
  • Yu Liu
  • Xiaoxue Ma
  • Yang Liu

Abstract

Human factors are widely regarded to be highly contributing factors to maritime accident prevention system failures. The conventional methods for human factor assessment, especially quantitative techniques, such as fault trees and bow‐ties, are static and cannot deal with models with uncertainty, which limits their application to human factors risk analysis. To alleviate these drawbacks, in the present study, a new human factor analysis framework called multidimensional analysis model of accident causes (MAMAC) is introduced. MAMAC combines the human factors analysis and classification system and business process management. In addition, intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and Bayesian Network are integrated into MAMAC to form a comprehensive dynamic human factors analysis model characterized by flexibility and uncertainty handling. The proposed model is tested on maritime accident scenarios from a sand carrier accident database in China to investigate the human factors involved, and the top 10 most highly contributing primary events associated with the human factors leading to sand carrier accidents are identified. According to the results of this study, direct human factors, classified as unsafe acts, are not a focus for maritime investigators and scholars. Meanwhile, unsafe preconditions and unsafe supervision are listed as the top two considerations for human factors analysis, especially for supervision failures of shipping companies and ship owners. Moreover, potential safety countermeasures for the most highly contributing human factors are proposed in this article. Finally, an application of the proposed model verifies its advantages in calculating the failure probability of accidents induced by human factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiliang Qiao & Yu Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Yang Liu, 2020. "Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 957-980, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:5:p:957-980
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13444
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.13444?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    2. Hänninen, Maria & Kujala, Pentti, 2012. "Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 27-40.
    3. Marcelo Ramos Martins & Marcos Coelho Maturana, 2010. "Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 674-698, April.
    4. Mohammad Yazdi & Farzaneh Nikfar & Mahnaz Nasrabadi, 2017. "Failure probability analysis by employing fuzzy fault tree analysis," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 8(2), pages 1177-1193, November.
    5. Wang, Ying-Ming & Luo, Ying & Hua, Zhongsheng, 2008. "On the extent analysis method for fuzzy AHP and its applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 735-747, April.
    6. Montewka, Jakub & Ehlers, Sören & Goerlandt, Floris & Hinz, Tomasz & Tabri, Kristjan & Kujala, Pentti, 2014. "A framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 142-157.
    7. Havle, Celal Alpay & Kılıç, Bilal, 2019. "A hybrid approach based on the fuzzy AHP and HFACS framework for identifying and analyzing gross navigation errors during transatlantic flights," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 21-30.
    8. Tzannatos, Ernestos & Kokotos, Dimitris, 2009. "Analysis of accidents in Greek shipping during the pre- and post-ISM period," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 679-684, July.
    9. Rajagopal, 2014. "The Human Factors," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 9, pages 225-249, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Haapasaari, Päivi & Helle, Inari & Lehikoinen, Annukka & Lappalainen, Jouni & Kuikka, Sakari, 2015. "A proactive approach for maritime safety policy making for the Gulf of Finland: Seeking best practices," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 107-118.
    11. Chang, Da-Yong, 1996. "Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 649-655, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lidong Pan & Yu Zheng & Juan Zheng & Bin Xu & Guangzhe Liu & Min Wang & Dingding Yang, 2022. "Characteristics of Chemical Accidents and Risk Assessment Method for Petrochemical Enterprises Based on Improved FBN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Laihao Ma & Xiaoxue Ma & Jingwen Zhang & Qing Yang & Kai Wei, 2021. "Identifying the Weaker Function Links in the Hazardous Chemicals Road Transportation System in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Wenjun Zhang & Yingjun Zhang & Weiliang Qiao, 2022. "Risk Scenario Evaluation for Intelligent Ships by Mapping Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Min Zeng & Chuanzhou Dian & Yaoyao Wei, 2022. "Risk Assessment of Insider Threats Based on IHFACS-BN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Li, Huanhuan & Jiao, Hang & Chen, Zhong Shuo & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee & Yang, Zaili, 2026. "COVID crisis-aware maritime risk assessment: A Bayesian network analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 266(PB).
    6. Deng, Wanyi & Ma, Xiaoxue & Qiao, Weiliang, 2024. "A novel methodology to quantify the impact of safety barriers on maritime operational risk based on a probabilistic network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    7. Weiliang Qiao & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & He Lan, 2021. "Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    8. Li, Huanhuan & Çelik, Cihad & Bashir, Musa & Zou, Lu & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "Incorporation of a global perspective into data-driven analysis of maritime collision accident risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    9. Wenjun Zhang & Xiangkun Meng & Xue Yang & Hongguang Lyu & Xiang-Yu Zhou & Qingwu Wang, 2022. "A Practical Risk-Based Model for Early Warning of Seafarer Errors Using Integrated Bayesian Network and SPAR-H," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Weiliang Qiao & Enze Huang & Hongtongyang Guo & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma, 2022. "Barriers Involved in the Safety Management Systems: A Systematic Review of Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-35, August.
    11. Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Weiliang Qiao & Huiwen Luo & Peilong He, 2021. "Human Factor Risk Modeling for Shipyard Operation by Mapping Fuzzy Fault Tree into Bayesian Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-31, December.
    12. Wang, Hong & Chen, Ning & Wu, Bing & Guedes Soares, C., 2024. "Human and organizational factors analysis of collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels based on HFACS-BN model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    13. Pan, Xing & Zuo, Dujun & Zhang, Wenjin & Hu, Lunhu & Wang, Huixiong & Jiang, Jing, 2021. "Research on Human Error Risk Evaluation Using Extended Bayesian Networks with Hybrid Data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    14. Yue Ma & Qing Liu & Liu Yang, 2025. "A seafarers’ cognitive error mining model based on IDA and TRACEr and mitigation measures for ship collision accidents," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 239(4), pages 720-735, August.
    15. Xiaoxue Ma & He Lan & Weiliang Qiao & Bing Han & Heilong He, 2024. "On the causation correlation of maritime accidents based on data mining techniques," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 238(5), pages 905-919, October.
    16. Lan, He & Ma, Xiaoxue & Qiao, Weiliang & Deng, Wanyi, 2023. "Determining the critical risk factors for predicting the severity of ship collision accidents using a data-driven approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    17. Lan, He & Ma, Xiaoxue & Qiao, Weiliang & Ma, Laihao, 2022. "On the causation of seafarers’ unsafe acts using grounded theory and association rule," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    18. Ung, S.T., 2021. "Navigation Risk estimation using a modified Bayesian Network modeling-a case study in Taiwan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    19. Zhuang Li & Jinzhang Jia & Peng Jia & Zhiguo Yang, 2025. "Reliability analysis of complex multistate systems based on an evidence-based discrete-time Bayesian network," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 239(6), pages 1505-1525, December.
    20. Haiying Cheng & Zhun Luo & Nd Seliverstov, 2022. "A Study of Foam Bitumen Preparation for Effective Recycling of Pavement Layers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-22, July.
    21. Qiao, Weiliang & Huang, Enze & Zhang, Meng & Ma, Xiaoxue & Liu, Dong, 2025. "Risk influencing factors on the consequence of waterborne transportation accidents in China (2013–2023) based on data-driven machine learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shiqi Fan & Zaili Yang & Eduardo Blanco-Davis & Jinfen Zhang & Xinping Yan, 2020. "Analysis of maritime transport accidents using Bayesian networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 439-454, June.
    2. Zhang, Mingyang & Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Kujala, Pentti & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2021. "A Big Data Analytics Method for the Evaluation of Ship - Ship Collision Risk reflecting Hydrometeorological Conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Ung, S.T., 2021. "Navigation Risk estimation using a modified Bayesian Network modeling-a case study in Taiwan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    4. Nitidetch Koohathongsumrit & Pongchanun Luangpaiboon, 2022. "An integrated FAHP–ZODP approach for strategic marketing information system project selection," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1792-1809, September.
    5. Sotiralis, P. & Ventikos, N.P. & Hamann, R. & Golyshev, P. & Teixeira, A.P., 2016. "Incorporation of human factors into ship collision risk models focusing on human centred design aspects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 210-227.
    6. Yamin Huang & P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, 2020. "Time‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 24-42, January.
    7. Yu, Qing & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos & Liu, Kezhong & Rong, Hao & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "An integrated dynamic ship risk model based on Bayesian Networks and Evidential Reasoning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Fan, Shiqi & Blanco-Davis, Eduardo & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Yan, Xinping, 2020. "Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Bing Wu & Xinping Yan & Yang Wang & C. Guedes Soares, 2017. "An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1936-1957, October.
    10. Weiliang Qiao & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & He Lan, 2021. "Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    11. Montewka, Jakub & Goerlandt, Floris & Innes-Jones, Gemma & Owen, Douglas & Hifi, Yasmine & Puisa, Romanas, 2017. "Enhancing human performance in ship operations by modifying global design factors at the design stage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 283-300.
    12. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    13. Li, Huanhuan & Çelik, Cihad & Bashir, Musa & Zou, Lu & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "Incorporation of a global perspective into data-driven analysis of maritime collision accident risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    14. Hsin-Chieh Wu & Toly Chen & Chin-Hau Huang, 2020. "A Piecewise Linear FGM Approach for Efficient and Accurate FAHP Analysis: Smart Backpack Design as an Example," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    15. Grošelj, Petra & Hodges, Donald G. & Zadnik Stirn, Lidija, 2016. "Participatory and multi-criteria analysis for forest (ecosystem) management: A case study of Pohorje, Slovenia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 80-86.
    16. Guizhen Zhang & Vinh V. Thai & Adrian Wing‐Keung Law & Kum Fai Yuen & Hui Shan Loh & Qingji Zhou, 2020. "Quantitative Risk Assessment of Seafarers’ Nonfatal Injuries Due to Occupational Accidents Based on Bayesian Network Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 8-23, January.
    17. Bing Wu & Huibin Tian & Xinping Yan & C. Guedes Soares, 2020. "A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 422-436, April.
    18. Mohamed Hanine & Omar Boutkhoum & Abderrafie El Maknissi & Abdessadek Tikniouine & Tarik Agouti, 2016. "Decision making under uncertainty using PEES–fuzzy AHP–fuzzy TOPSIS methodology for landfill location selection," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 351-367, December.
    19. Ping-Lung Huang & Bruce C.Y. Lee & Chen-Song Wang & Chi-Te Sun, 2017. "Relative Importance of the Factors under the ISO-10015 Quality Management Guidelines that Influence the Service Quality of Certification Bodies," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 13(1), pages 105-137, February.
    20. María Carmen Carnero & Andrés Gómez, 2019. "Optimization of Decision Making in the Supply of Medicinal Gases Used in Health Care," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-31, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:5:p:957-980. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.