IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i4p2103-d747869.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Scenario Evaluation for Intelligent Ships by Mapping Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management

Author

Listed:
  • Wenjun Zhang

    (Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

  • Yingjun Zhang

    (Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

  • Weiliang Qiao

    (Marine Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

Abstract

To identify and screen the risk scenarios for the navigation risk of intelligent ships, the analysis and evaluation of navigational risks were performed in this study. Risk scenarios were developed and evaluated by mapping the hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM) into risk filtering, ranking and management (RFRM). In detail, considering the insignificant influences of some factors on navigational activities, risk factors were filtered and ranked using the RFRM model. Seven final factors were successfully determined, including traffic flow, navigation environment understanding, ship–shore interaction capabilities, target recognition capabilities, communication equipment reliabilities, professional skills, and situation judgments. The results indicated that cargo security can be guaranteed by following navigational risk identification and screening steps, and thus our findings provide theoretical guidance for the dynamic management of maritime organizations and ship companies. In addition, the proposed methodology is desirable for making predictions on maritime traffic risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenjun Zhang & Yingjun Zhang & Weiliang Qiao, 2022. "Risk Scenario Evaluation for Intelligent Ships by Mapping Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:2103-:d:747869
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/4/2103/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/4/2103/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stan Kaplan & Yacov Y. Haimes & B. John Garrick, 2001. "Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into the Theory of Scenario Structuring and a Resulting Refinement to the Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(5), pages 807-807, October.
    2. Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Rokseth, Børge & Sørensen, Asgeir J. & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2020. "Towards supervisory risk control of autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    3. Weiliang Qiao & Yu Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Yang Liu, 2020. "Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 957-980, May.
    4. Weiliang Qiao & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & He Lan, 2021. "Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Chang, Chia-Hsun & Kontovas, Christos & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Risk assessment of the operations of maritime autonomous surface ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Sotiralis, P. & Ventikos, N.P. & Hamann, R. & Golyshev, P. & Teixeira, A.P., 2016. "Incorporation of human factors into ship collision risk models focusing on human centred design aspects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 210-227.
    7. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    8. Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub & Kujala, Pentti, 2017. "Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 155-169.
    9. Yacov Y. Haimes & Stan Kaplan & James H. Lambert, 2002. "Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 383-397, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Zhang, Di, 2022. "A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Wenjun Zhang & Xiangkun Meng & Xue Yang & Hongguang Lyu & Xiang-Yu Zhou & Qingwu Wang, 2022. "A Practical Risk-Based Model for Early Warning of Seafarer Errors Using Integrated Bayesian Network and SPAR-H," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-14, August.
    3. James H. Lambert & Rachel K. Jennings & Nilesh N. Joshi, 2006. "Integration of risk identification with business process models," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(3), pages 187-198, September.
    4. James H. Lambert & Benjamin L. Schulte & Priya Sarda, 2005. "Tracking the complexity of interactions between risk incidents and engineering systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(3), pages 262-277, September.
    5. Hong Sun & Fangquan Yang & Peiwen Zhang & Yunxiang Zhao, 2023. "Flight Training Risk Identification and Assessment Based on the HHM-RFRM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Ioanna Ioannou & Jaime E. Cadena & Willy Aspinall & David Lange & Daniel Honfi & Tiziana Rossetto, 2022. "Prioritization of hazards for risk and resilience management through elicitation of expert judgement," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2773-2795, July.
    7. Barry M. Horowitz & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2003. "Risk‐based methodology for scenario tracking, intelligence gathering, and analysis for countering terrorism," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 152-169.
    8. Maria Leung & James H. Lambert & Alexander Mosenthal, 2004. "A Risk‐Based Approach to Setting Priorities in Protecting Bridges Against Terrorist Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 963-984, August.
    9. Barry Charles Ezell, 2007. "Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I‐VAM)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 571-583, June.
    10. Xiaoyuan Zhao & Haiwen Yuan & Qing Yu, 2021. "Autonomous Vessels in the Yangtze River: A Study on the Maritime Accidents Using Data-Driven Bayesian Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Victor Bolbot & Gerasimos Theotokatos & LA Wennersberg & Jerome Faivre & Dracos Vassalos & Evangelos Boulougouris & Ørnulf Jan Rødseth & Pål Andersen & Ann-Sofie Pauwelyn & Antoon Van Coillie, 2023. "A novel risk assessment process: Application to an autonomous inland waterways ship," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(2), pages 436-458, April.
    12. Gregory A. Lamm & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2002. "Assessing and managing risks to information assurance: A methodological approach," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(4), pages 286-314.
    13. Wang, Yang & Chen, Peng & Wu, Bing & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "A trustable architecture over blockchain to facilitate maritime administration for MASS systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    14. Elizabeth B. Connelly & Lisa M. Colosi & Andres F. Clarens & James H. Lambert, 2015. "Risk Analysis of Biofuels Industry for Aviation with Scenario‐Based Expert Elicitation," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 178-191, March.
    15. Johansen, Thomas & Blindheim, Simon & Torben, Tobias Rye & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Johansen, Tor Arne & Sørensen, Asgeir J., 2023. "Development and testing of a risk-based control system for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Yu, Qing & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos & Liu, Kezhong & Rong, Hao & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "An integrated dynamic ship risk model based on Bayesian Networks and Evidential Reasoning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    17. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    18. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2012. "Systems‐Based Guiding Principles for Risk Modeling, Planning, Assessment, Management, and Communication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(9), pages 1451-1467, September.
    19. Matthew H. Henry & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "A Comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for Process Control Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 223-248, February.
    20. Amro Nasr & Oskar Larsson Ivanov & Ivar Björnsson & Jonas Johansson & Dániel Honfi, 2021. "Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:2103-:d:747869. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.