IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v213y2021ics0951832021003021.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Navigation Risk estimation using a modified Bayesian Network modeling-a case study in Taiwan

Author

Listed:
  • Ung, S.T.

Abstract

Frequency of the shipping accidents in Taiwan has been increasing since 2013. Navigation Risk estimation using a modified Bayesian Network (BN) making use of the shipping accident data between 2014 and 2019 is conducted. Parameters based on Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) marine accident database are treated as the parent and child nodes, namely, Ship Age, Flag, Ship Type, Gross Tonnage, Accident Type, Accident Severity, Sea State and Location. The information of such knobs is compiled and forms the basis for prior and conditional probability calculations. Considering the consistency of the condition probability entries for child nodes lacking data, a mapping process contemplating the states from parent nodes is proposed. Rationality of the BN model is validated by the sensitivity analysis of the Navigation Risk outcomes and Accident Frequency and Accident Severity comparisons with the MOTC figures. General Cargoes, Bulk Carriers and Containers under 10,000 GT tend to have higher risk of accidents whereas Containers and General Cargoes over 15,000 GT are prone to encounter mishaps. Grounding, Collision and Fire/Explosion should deserve attention worldwide. The proposed BN demonstrates the feature of proactive safety analysis based on scenario analysis carrying out Navigation Risk predictions considering vessel characteristics and environmental conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ung, S.T., 2021. "Navigation Risk estimation using a modified Bayesian Network modeling-a case study in Taiwan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:213:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021003021
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107777
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832021003021
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107777?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    2. Du, Lei & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2020. "Review and analysis of methods for assessing maritime waterway risk based on non-accident critical events detected from AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Wang, Likun & Yang, Zaili, 2018. "Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 277-289.
    4. Trucco, P. & Cagno, E. & Ruggeri, F. & Grande, O., 2008. "A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 845-856.
    5. Dinis, D. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "Probabilistic approach for characterising the static risk of ships using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Hänninen, Maria & Kujala, Pentti, 2012. "Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 27-40.
    7. Martins, Marcelo Ramos & Maturana, Marcos Coelho, 2013. "Application of Bayesian Belief networks to the human reliability analysis of an oil tanker operation focusing on collision accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 89-109.
    8. Yildiz, Serdar & Uğurlu, Özkan & Wang, Jin & Loughney, Sean, 2021. "Application of the HFACS-PV approach for identification of human and organizational factors (HOFs) influencing marine accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    9. Meizhi Jiang & Jing Lu & Zaili Yang & Jing Li, 2020. "Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 815-832, August.
    10. Marcelo Ramos Martins & Marcos Coelho Maturana, 2010. "Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 674-698, April.
    11. Montewka, Jakub & Ehlers, Sören & Goerlandt, Floris & Hinz, Tomasz & Tabri, Kristjan & Kujala, Pentti, 2014. "A framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 142-157.
    12. Suyi Li & Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu, 2012. "An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 496-512, March.
    13. Weiliang Qiao & Yu Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Yang Liu, 2020. "Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 957-980, May.
    14. Shiqi Fan & Zaili Yang & Eduardo Blanco-Davis & Jinfen Zhang & Xinping Yan, 2020. "Analysis of maritime transport accidents using Bayesian networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 439-454, June.
    15. Sotiralis, P. & Ventikos, N.P. & Hamann, R. & Golyshev, P. & Teixeira, A.P., 2016. "Incorporation of human factors into ship collision risk models focusing on human centred design aspects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 210-227.
    16. Khan, Bushra & Khan, Faisal & Veitch, Brian & Yang, Ming, 2018. "An operational risk analysis tool to analyze marine transportation in Arctic waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 485-502.
    17. Jiang, Dan & Wu, Bing & Cheng, Zhiyou & Xue, Jie & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2021. "Towards a probabilistic model for estimation of grounding accidents in fluctuating backwater zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    18. Fan, Shiqi & Blanco-Davis, Eduardo & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Yan, Xinping, 2020. "Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    19. Zhang, D. & Yan, X.P. & Yang, Z.L. & Wall, A. & Wang, J., 2013. "Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze River," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 93-105.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Puisa, Romanas & Montewka, Jakub & Krata, Przemyslaw, 2023. "A framework estimating the minimum sample size and margin of error for maritime quantitative risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Liang, Xinrui & Fan, Shiqi & Lucy, John & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "Risk analysis of cargo theft from freight supply chains using a data-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Ballester-Ripoll, Rafael & Leonelli, Manuele, 2022. "Computing Sobol indices in probabilistic graphical models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    4. Elidolu, Gizem & Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Akyuz, Emre & Arslan, Ozcan & Arslanoglu, Yasin, 2023. "Operational risk assessment of ballasting and de-ballasting on-board tanker ship under FMECA extended Evidential Reasoning (ER) and Rule-based Bayesian Network (RBN) approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    6. Adhita, I Gde Manik Sukanegara & Fuchi, Masaki & Konishi, Tsukasa & Fujimoto, Shoji, 2023. "Ship navigation from a Safety-II perspective: A case study of training-ship operation in coastal area," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    7. Guo, Yunlong & Jin, Yongxing & Hu, Shenping & Yang, Zaili & Xi, Yongtao & Han, Bing, 2023. "Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    8. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    9. Li, Huanhuan & Ren, Xujie & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Data-driven Bayesian network for risk analysis of global maritime accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    10. Tao, Longlong & Chen, Liwei & Ge, Daochuan & Yao, Yuantao & Ruan, Fang & Wu, Jie & Yu, Jie, 2022. "An integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodology for maritime transportation of spent nuclear fuel based on event tree and hydrodynamic model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Xu, Sheng & Kim, Ekaterina & Haugen, Stein & Zhang, Mingyang, 2022. "A Bayesian network risk model for predicting ship besetting in ice during convoy operations along the Northern Sea Route," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Qing & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos & Liu, Kezhong & Rong, Hao & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "An integrated dynamic ship risk model based on Bayesian Networks and Evidential Reasoning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Fan, Shiqi & Blanco-Davis, Eduardo & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Yan, Xinping, 2020. "Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Zhang, Mingyang & Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Kujala, Pentti & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2021. "A Big Data Analytics Method for the Evaluation of Ship - Ship Collision Risk reflecting Hydrometeorological Conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    4. Li, Huanhuan & Ren, Xujie & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Data-driven Bayesian network for risk analysis of global maritime accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Yu, Qing & Liu, Kezhong & Chang, Chia-Hsun & Yang, Zaili, 2020. "Realising advanced risk assessment of vessel traffic flows near offshore wind farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Yang, Zhisen & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili & Yu, Qing, 2021. "Using Bayesian network-based TOPSIS to aid dynamic port state control detention risk control decision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    7. Liu, Kezhong & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zhisen & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "BN-based port state control inspection for Paris MoU: New risk factors and probability training using big data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    9. Wang, Lei & Liu, Qing & Dong, Shiyu & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Selection of countermeasure portfolio for shipping safety with consideration of investment risk aversion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    10. Cai, Mingyou & Zhang, Jinfen & Zhang, Di & Yuan, Xiaoli & Soares, C. Guedes, 2021. "Collision risk analysis on ferry ships in Jiangsu Section of the Yangtze River based on AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    11. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Maritime traffic probabilistic prediction based on ship motion pattern extraction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    12. Guo, Yunlong & Jin, Yongxing & Hu, Shenping & Yang, Zaili & Xi, Yongtao & Han, Bing, 2023. "Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    13. Kaptan, Mehmet & Uğurlu, Özkan & Wang, Jin, 2021. "The effect of nonconformities encountered in the use of technology on the occurrence of collision, contact and grounding accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    14. Xiaoyuan Zhao & Haiwen Yuan & Qing Yu, 2021. "Autonomous Vessels in the Yangtze River: A Study on the Maritime Accidents Using Data-Driven Bayesian Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, September.
    15. Dinis, D. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "Probabilistic approach for characterising the static risk of ships using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    16. Shiqi Fan & Zaili Yang & Eduardo Blanco-Davis & Jinfen Zhang & Xinping Yan, 2020. "Analysis of maritime transport accidents using Bayesian networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 439-454, June.
    17. Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Ruponen, Pekka & Tompuri, Markus & Gil, Mateusz & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "Accident susceptibility index for a passenger ship-a framework and case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    18. Wang, Yuhong & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Incorporation of deficiency data into the analysis of the dependency and interdependency among the risk factors influencing port state control inspection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    19. Abreu, Danilo T.M.P. & Maturana, Marcos C. & Droguett, Enrique Lopez & Martins, Marcelo R., 2022. "Human reliability analysis of conventional maritime pilotage operations supported by a prospective model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    20. Wang, Likun & Huang, Ruiling & Shi, Wenming & Zhang, Caiyun, 2021. "Domino effect in marine accidents: Evidence from temporal association rules," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 236-244.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:213:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021003021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.