IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v37y2017i10p1936-1957.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process

Author

Listed:
  • Bing Wu
  • Xinping Yan
  • Yang Wang
  • C. Guedes Soares

Abstract

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario‐ and barrier‐based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning‐based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Bing Wu & Xinping Yan & Yang Wang & C. Guedes Soares, 2017. "An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1936-1957, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:10:p:1936-1957
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12757
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12757
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12757?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marzio Marseguerra & Enrico Zio & Massimo Librizzi, 2007. "Human Reliability Analysis by Fuzzy “CREAM”," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 137-154, February.
    2. Z. L. Yang & J. Wang & K. X. Li, 2013. "Maritime safety analysis in retrospect," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-277, May.
    3. Rajagopal, 2014. "The Human Factors," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 9, pages 225-249, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Antão, Pedro & Guedes Soares, C., 2008. "Causal factors in accidents of high-speed craft and conventional ocean-going vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(9), pages 1292-1304.
    5. Kim, Dong San & Baek, Dong Hyun & Yoon, Wan Chul, 2010. "Development and evaluation of a computer-aided system for analyzing human error in railway operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 87-98.
    6. Bedford, Tim & Bayley, Clare & Revie, Matthew, 2013. "Screening, sensitivity, and uncertainty for the CREAM method of Human Reliability Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 100-110.
    7. Hänninen, Maria & Kujala, Pentti, 2012. "Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 27-40.
    8. Kim, Man Cheol & Seong, Poong Hyun & Hollnagel, Erik, 2006. "A probabilistic approach for determining the control mode in CREAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 191-199.
    9. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Z. L. Yang & J. Wang & S. Bonsall & Q. G. Fang, 2009. "Use of Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning in Maritime Security Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(1), pages 95-120, January.
    11. Yang, J.B. & Wang, Y.M. & Xu, D.L. & Chin, K.S., 2006. "The evidential reasoning approach for MADA under both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 309-343, May.
    12. He, Xuhong & Wang, Yao & Shen, Zupei & Huang, Xiangrui, 2008. "A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 298-306.
    13. Yang, Jian-Bo, 2001. "Rule and utility based evidential reasoning approach for multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 31-61, May.
    14. Yang, Zaili & Ng, Adolf K.Y. & Wang, Jin, 2014. "A new risk quantification approach in port facility security assessment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 72-90.
    15. Sun, Zhiqiang & Li, Zhengyi & Gong, Erling & Xie, Hongwei, 2012. "Estimating Human Error Probability using a modified CREAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 28-32.
    16. Konstandinidou, Myrto & Nivolianitou, Zoe & Kiranoudis, Chris & Markatos, Nikolaos, 2006. "A fuzzy modeling application of CREAM methodology for human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(6), pages 706-716.
    17. Xiaoyan Su & Sankaran Mahadevan & Peida Xu & Yong Deng, 2015. "Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis Using Evidence Theory and AHP," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1296-1316, July.
    18. Shuen‐Tai Ung & Wei‐Min Shen, 2011. "A Novel Human Error Probability Assessment Using Fuzzy Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(5), pages 745-757, May.
    19. Özgecan S. Ulusçu & Birnur Özbaş & Tayfur Altıok & İlhan Or, 2009. "Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1454-1472, October.
    20. Tzannatos, Ernestos & Kokotos, Dimitris, 2009. "Analysis of accidents in Greek shipping during the pre- and post-ISM period," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 679-684, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bing Wu & Huibin Tian & Xinping Yan & C. Guedes Soares, 2020. "A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 422-436, April.
    2. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Maritime traffic probabilistic prediction based on ship motion pattern extraction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Abrishami, Shokoufeh & Khakzad, Nima & Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud, 2020. "A data-based comparison of BN-HRA models in assessing human error probability: An offshore evacuation case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Du, Lei & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2020. "Review and analysis of methods for assessing maritime waterway risk based on non-accident critical events detected from AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Akyuz, Emre & Arslan, Ozcan, 2022. "An extended HEART Dempster–Shafer evidence theory approach to assess human reliability for the gas freeing process on chemical tankers," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    7. Wu, Bing & Tang, Yuheng & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "Bayesian Network modelling for safety management of electric vehicles transported in RoPax ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    8. Yuga Raju Gunda & Suprakash Gupta & Lalit Kumar Singh, 2023. "Assessing human performance and human reliability: a review," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 14(3), pages 817-828, June.
    9. Gao, Dawei & Zhu, Yongsheng & Yan, Ke & Soares, C. Guedes, 2024. "Deep learning–based framework for regional risk assessment in a multi–ship encounter situation based on the transformer network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    10. Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Ruponen, Pekka & Tompuri, Markus & Gil, Mateusz & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "Accident susceptibility index for a passenger ship-a framework and case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    11. Wang, Lei & Liu, Qing & Dong, Shiyu & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Selection of countermeasure portfolio for shipping safety with consideration of investment risk aversion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Zhang, Di, 2022. "A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    13. Vytautas Paulauskas & Viktoras Senčila & Donatas Paulauskas & Martynas Simutis, 2023. "Impact of Port Shallowness (Clearance under the Ship’s Keel) on Shipping Safety, Energy Consumption and Sustainability of Green Ports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Xiaozhuan Gao & Yong Deng, 2019. "The generalization negation of probability distribution and its application in target recognition based on sensor fusion," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 15(5), pages 15501477198, May.
    15. Shaoqi Jiang & Weijiong Chen & Yutao Kang & Jiahao Liu & Wanglai Kuang, 2021. "Identifying Cognitive Mechanism Underlying Situation Awareness of Pilots’ Unsafe Behaviors Using Quantitative Modeling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-17, March.
    16. Yu, Qing & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos & Liu, Kezhong & Rong, Hao & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "An integrated dynamic ship risk model based on Bayesian Networks and Evidential Reasoning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    17. Divya Choudhary & Ravi Shankar & Alok Choudhary, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 858-883, April.
    18. Gao, Dawei & Zhu, Yongsheng & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Uncertainty modelling and dynamic risk assessment for long-sequence AIS trajectory based on multivariate Gaussian Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    19. Zhou, Yusheng & Li, Xue & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2022. "Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    20. Wang, Likun & Yang, Zaili, 2018. "Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 277-289.
    21. Dinis, D. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "Probabilistic approach for characterising the static risk of ships using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    22. Liu, Peng & Qiu, Yongping & Hu, Juntao & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2020. "Expert judgments for performance shaping Factors’ multiplier design in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Wang, Likun & Yang, Zaili, 2018. "Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 277-289.
    4. Gino J. Lim & Jaeyoung Cho & Selim Bora & Taofeek Biobaku & Hamid Parsaei, 2018. "Models and computational algorithms for maritime risk analysis: a review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 765-786, December.
    5. Yue Jiao & Maxim A. Dulebenets & Yui-yip Lau, 2020. "Cruise Ship Safety Management in Asian Regions: Trends and Future Outlook," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Montewka, Jakub & Goerlandt, Floris & Innes-Jones, Gemma & Owen, Douglas & Hifi, Yasmine & Puisa, Romanas, 2017. "Enhancing human performance in ship operations by modifying global design factors at the design stage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 283-300.
    7. Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Akyuz, Emre & Arslan, Ozcan, 2022. "An extended HEART Dempster–Shafer evidence theory approach to assess human reliability for the gas freeing process on chemical tankers," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    8. Jiang, Meizhi & Lu, Jing, 2020. "The analysis of maritime piracy occurred in Southeast Asia by using Bayesian network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Wróbel, Krzysztof, 2021. "Searching for the origins of the myth: 80% human error impact on maritime safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Zhang, Yang & Sun, Xukai & Chen, Jihong & Cheng, Cheng, 2021. "Spatial patterns and characteristics of global maritime accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    11. Sotiralis, P. & Ventikos, N.P. & Hamann, R. & Golyshev, P. & Teixeira, A.P., 2016. "Incorporation of human factors into ship collision risk models focusing on human centred design aspects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 210-227.
    12. Hani Alyami & Paul Tae-Woo Lee & Zaili Yang & Ramin Riahi & Stephen Bonsall & Jin Wang, 2014. "An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 634-650, December.
    13. Weiliang Qiao & Yu Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Yang Liu, 2020. "Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 957-980, May.
    14. Fan, Shiqi & Blanco-Davis, Eduardo & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Yan, Xinping, 2020. "Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    15. Chang, Chia-Hsun & Kontovas, Christos & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Risk assessment of the operations of maritime autonomous surface ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    16. Özkan Uğurlu & Serdar Yıldız & Sean Loughney & Jin Wang & Shota Kuntchulia & Irakli Sharabidze, 2020. "Analyzing Collision, Grounding, and Sinking Accidents Occurring in the Black Sea Utilizing HFACS and Bayesian Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(12), pages 2610-2638, December.
    17. Çakır, Erkan & Fışkın, Remzi & Sevgili, Coşkan, 2021. "Investigation of tugboat accidents severity: An application of association rule mining algorithms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    18. Divya Choudhary & Ravi Shankar & Alok Choudhary, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 858-883, April.
    19. Shiqi Fan & Zaili Yang & Eduardo Blanco-Davis & Jinfen Zhang & Xinping Yan, 2020. "Analysis of maritime transport accidents using Bayesian networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 439-454, June.
    20. Fu, Chao & Yang, Jian-Bo & Yang, Shan-Lin, 2015. "A group evidential reasoning approach based on expert reliability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 886-893.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:10:p:1936-1957. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.