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Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis Using Evidence Theory and AHP

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  • Xiaoyan Su
  • Sankaran Mahadevan
  • Peida Xu
  • Yong Deng

Abstract

Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important issue. Many of the dependence assessment methods in HRA rely heavily on the expert's opinion, thus are subjective and may sometimes cause inconsistency. In this article, we propose a computational model based on the Dempster‐Shafer evidence theory (DSET) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to handle dependence in HRA. First, dependence influencing factors among human tasks are identified and the weights of the factors are determined by experts using the AHP method. Second, judgment on each factor is given by the analyst referring to anchors and linguistic labels. Third, the judgments are represented as basic belief assignments (BBAs) and are integrated into a fused BBA by weighted average combination in DSET. Finally, the CHEP is calculated based on the fused BBA. The proposed model can deal with ambiguity and the degree of confidence in the judgments, and is able to reduce the subjectivity and improve the consistency in the evaluation process.

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  • Xiaoyan Su & Sankaran Mahadevan & Peida Xu & Yong Deng, 2015. "Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis Using Evidence Theory and AHP," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1296-1316, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:7:p:1296-1316
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12347
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    14. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
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    16. Ana Mehak & Yongtong Mu & Muhammad Mohsin & Xing-Can Zhang, 2023. "MCDM-Based Ranking and Prioritization of Fisheries’ Risks: A Case Study of Sindh, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, May.
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    19. Shengwen Yin & Keliang Jin & Yu Bai & Wei Zhou & Zhonggang Wang, 2023. "Solution-Space-Reduction-Based Evidence Theory Method for Stiffness Evaluation of Air Springs with Epistemic Uncertainty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, March.
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