IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v39y2019i11p2499-2513.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft

Author

Listed:
  • Anders la Cour‐Harbo
  • Henrik Schiøler

Abstract

Unmanned aircrafts (UA) usually fly below 500 ft to be segregated from manned aircraft. However, while general aviation (GA) usually do fly above 500 ft in areas where UA are allowed to operate, GA will at times also fly below 500 ft. Consequently, there is a distinct risk of near‐miss encounters as well as actual midair collisions (MACs). This work presents a model for determining this risk based on physical parameters of the aircraft and actual figures for the numbers of GA in a given airspace, as well as the probability of having GA below 500 ft. The aim is to achieve a prediction with a precision better than one order of magnitude relative to the true MAC rate value. The model is applied to Danish airspace and the MAC rate for unmitigated operations of UA is found to be approximately 10−6 MAC per flight hour. The model is particularly well suited for beyond visual line‐of‐sight operations, and is useful for UA operators for conducting risk assessment of planned operations as well as for regulators for determining appropriate operational requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Anders la Cour‐Harbo & Henrik Schiøler, 2019. "Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2499-2513, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:11:p:2499-2513
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13368
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13368
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.13368?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Melnyk & Daniel Schrage & Vitali Volovoi & Hernando Jimenez, 2014. "Sense and Avoid Requirements for Unmanned Aircraft Systems Using a Target Level of Safety Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1894-1906, October.
    2. Datta, K. & Oliver, R. M., 1991. "Predicting risk of near midair collisions in controlled airspace," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 237-252, August.
    3. Robert E. Machol, 1995. "Thirty Years of Modeling Midair Collisions," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 151-172, October.
    4. Netjasov, Fedja & Janic, Milan, 2008. "A review of research on risk and safety modelling in civil aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 213-220.
    5. Robert W. Patlovany, 1997. "U.S. Aviation Regulations Increase Probability of Midair Collisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 237-248, April.
    6. Robert E. Machol, 1975. "An Aircraft Collision Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(10), pages 1089-1101, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Blom, Henk A.P. & Jiang, Chenpeng & Grimme, Wouter B.A. & Mitici, Mihaela & Cheung, Yuk S., 2021. "Third party risk modelling of Unmanned Aircraft System operations, with application to parcel delivery service," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnold Barnett, 2000. "Free-Flight and en Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(6), pages 833-845, December.
    2. Naybour, Matthew & Remenyte-Prescott, Rasa & Boyd, Matthew J., 2019. "Reliability and efficiency evaluation of a community pharmacy dispensing process using a coloured Petri-net approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 258-268.
    3. Arnold Barnett, 1999. "A "Parallel Approach" Path to Estimating Collision Risk During Simultaneous Landings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 382-394, March.
    4. Rahim A. Ganiyu, 2016. "Perceived Service Quality and Customer Loyalty: The Mediating Effect of Passenger Satisfaction in the Nigerian Airline Industry," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 52(1), pages 94-117, December.
    5. Ghoneim, Ayman & Abbass, Hussein A., 2016. "A multiobjective distance separation methodology to determine sector-level minimum separation for safe air traffic scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 226-240.
    6. Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin & Zhu, Yanzhi, 2020. "Methodology for assessing dependencies between factors influencing airline pilot performance reliability: A case of taxiing tasks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Wendl, Michael C., 2003. "Collision probability between sets of random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 249-254, September.
    8. Ivano Bongiovanni & Cameron Newton, 2019. "Toward an Epidemiology of Safety and Security Risks: An Organizational Vulnerability Assessment in International Airports," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1281-1297, June.
    9. Thomas R. Willemain, 2003. "Factors Influencing Blind Conflict Risk in En Route Sectors Under Free-Flight Conditions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 457-470, November.
    10. Rios Insua, D. & Alfaro, C. & Gomez, J. & Hernandez-Coronado, P. & Bernal, F., 2018. "A framework for risk management decisions in aviation safety at state level," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 74-82.
    11. Pacheco, Ricardo Rodrigues & Fernandes, Elton & Domingos, Eduardo Marques, 2014. "Airport airside safety index," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 86-92.
    12. Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem & Flage, Roger & Vasseur, Dominique & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "An extended method for evaluating assumptions deviations in quantitative risk assessment and its application to external flooding risk assessment of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Robert W. Patlovany, 1997. "U.S. Aviation Regulations Increase Probability of Midair Collisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 237-248, April.
    14. Fox, Sarah Jane, 2020. "The ‘risk’ of disruptive technology today (A case study of aviation – Enter the drone)," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Sun, Jun-ya & Liao, Yang & Lu, Fei & Sun, Rui-shan & Jia, Hong-bo, 2023. "Assessment of pilot fatigue risk on international flights under the prevention and control policy of the Chinese civil aviation industry during the COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    16. Netjasov, Fedja & Janic, Milan, 2008. "A review of research on risk and safety modelling in civil aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 213-220.
    17. Fox, Sarah, 2014. "Safety and security: The influence of 9/11 to the EU framework for air carriers and aircraft operators," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 24-33.
    18. Chikha, Paulina & Skorupski, Jacek, 2022. "The risk of an airport traffic accident in the context of the ground handling personnel performance," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    19. M Baldauf & K Benedict & S Fischer & F Motz & J-U Schröder-Hinrichs, 2011. "Collision avoidance systems in air and maritime traffic," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 225(3), pages 333-343, September.
    20. Monika Blišťanová & Michaela Tirpáková & Jozef Galanda, 2022. "Proposal of Risk Identification Methodology Using the Prompt List on the Example of an Air Carrier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:11:p:2499-2513. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.