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An extended method for evaluating assumptions deviations in quantitative risk assessment and its application to external flooding risk assessment of a nuclear power plant

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  • Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem
  • Flage, Roger
  • Vasseur, Dominique
  • Zeng, Zhiguo
  • Zio, Enrico

Abstract

In quantitative risk assessment, assumptions are typically made, based on best judgement, conservative, or (sometimes) optimistic judgments. Best judgment and optimistic assumptions may result in failing to meet the quantitative safety objectives, whereas conservative assumptions may increase the margins which the objectives are met with but result in cost-ineffective design or operation. In the present paper, we develop an extended framework for the analysis of the criticality of assumptions in risk assessment by evaluating the risk that deviations from the assumptions lead to a reduction of the safety margins. The framework aims to support risk-informed decision making by identifying important assumptions and integrating the assessment of their criticality into the quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The framework is, finally applied within the quantitative risk assessment of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) exposed to external flooding. Compared to previous works on the subject, we consider also conservative assumptions and introduce decision flow diagrams to support the classification of the criticality of the assumptions. The framework provides a more comprehensive and transparent evaluation of the assumptions deviation risk through the decision flow diagrams that facilitate the standardization of the evaluation of the assumption deviation effects on the risk assessment.

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  • Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem & Flage, Roger & Vasseur, Dominique & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "An extended method for evaluating assumptions deviations in quantitative risk assessment and its application to external flooding risk assessment of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:200:y:2020:i:c:s0951832018312079
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hai-Long Zhu & Shan-Shan Liu & Yuan-Yuan Qu & Xiao-Xia Han & Wei He & You Cao, 2022. "A new risk assessment method based on belief rule base and fault tree analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(3), pages 420-438, June.
    2. Cavalieri, Francesco & Franchin, Paolo & Giovinazzi, Sonia, 2023. "Multi-hazard assessment of increased flooding hazard due to earthquake-induced damage to the natural drainage system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Othman, Abdullah & El-Saoud, Waleed A. & Habeebullah, Turki & Shaaban, Fathy & Abotalib, Abotalib Z., 2023. "Risk assessment of flash flood and soil erosion impacts on electrical infrastructures in overcrowded mountainous urban areas under climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

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