IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v163y2017icp22-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

Author

Listed:
  • Khorsandi, Jahon
  • Aven, Terje

Abstract

Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

Suggested Citation

  • Khorsandi, Jahon & Aven, Terje, 2017. "Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 22-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:163:y:2017:i:c:p:22-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.01.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832017301308
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2017.01.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zio, E., 2009. "Reliability engineering: Old problems and new challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 125-141.
    2. Selvik, J.T. & Aven, T., 2011. "A framework for reliability and risk centered maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 324-331.
    3. Jan-Erik Vinnem, 2013. "Use of accident precursor event investigations in the understanding of major hazard risk potential in the Norwegian offshore industry," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(1), pages 66-79, February.
    4. Aven, Terje, 2013. "Practical implications of the new risk perspectives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 136-145.
    5. Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2013. "On the development of failure models for hydrocarbon leaks during maintenance work in process plants on offshore petroleum installations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-121.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem & Flage, Roger & Vasseur, Dominique & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "An extended method for evaluating assumptions deviations in quantitative risk assessment and its application to external flooding risk assessment of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Gulsum Kubra Kaya & James Ward & John Clarkson, 2019. "A Review of Risk Matrices Used in Acute Hospitals in England," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 1060-1070, May.
    3. Flage, Roger & Askeland, Tore, 2020. "Assumptions in quantitative risk assessments: When explicit and when tacit?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Chemweno, Peter & Pintelon, Liliane & Muchiri, Peter Nganga & Van Horenbeek, Adriaan, 2018. "Risk assessment methodologies in maintenance decision making: A review of dependability modelling approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 64-77.
    5. Tasneem Bani-Mustafa & Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Dominique Vasseur & Francois Beaudouin, 2020. "A hierarchical tree-based decision-making approach for assessing the relative trustworthiness of risk assessment models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(6), pages 748-763, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haugen, Stein & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2015. "Perspectives on risk and the unforeseen," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-5.
    2. Asadzadeh, S.M. & Azadeh, A., 2014. "An integrated systemic model for optimization of condition-based maintenance with human error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 117-131.
    3. Rajkumar Bhimgonda Patil & Basavraj S Kothavale & Laxman Yadu Waghmode, 2019. "Selection of time-to-failure model for computerized numerical control turning center based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(2), pages 105-117, April.
    4. Charles Sabel & Gary Herrigel & Peer Hull Kristensen, 2018. "Regulation under uncertainty: The coevolution of industry and regulation," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(3), pages 371-394, September.
    5. Rodrigo Andrade & Somayeh Moazeni & Jose Emmanuel Ramirez‐Marquez, 2020. "A systems perspective on contact centers and customer service reliability modeling," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 221-236, March.
    6. Phan, Hieu Chi & Dhar, Ashutosh Sutra & Bui, Nang Duc, 2023. "Reliability assessment of pipelines crossing strike-slip faults considering modeling uncertainties using ANN models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Rocchetta, Roberto & Crespo, Luis G., 2021. "A scenario optimization approach to reliability-based and risk-based design: Soft-constrained modulation of failure probability bounds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Niu, Gang & Yang, Bo-Suk & Pecht, Michael, 2010. "Development of an optimized condition-based maintenance system by data fusion and reliability-centered maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 786-796.
    9. Teng, Kuei-Yung & Thekdi, Shital A. & Lambert, James H., 2012. "Identification and evaluation of priorities in the business process of a risk or safety organization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 74-86.
    10. Dharmaraja, S. & Vinayak, Resham & Trivedi, Kishor S., 2016. "Reliability and survivability of vehicular ad hoc networks: An analytical approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 28-38.
    11. Bjørnsen, Kjartan & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås & Aven, Terje, 2019. "A semi-quantitative assessment process for improved use of the expected value of information measure in safety management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 494-502.
    12. Amro Nasr & Oskar Larsson Ivanov & Ivar Björnsson & Jonas Johansson & Dániel Honfi, 2021. "Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2015. "An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 701-712, April.
    14. Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas & Saad S.H. Al‐Jibouri & Johannes I.M. Halman & Frits A. van Tol, 2014. "Modeling Risk‐Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 323-339, February.
    15. García Nieto, P.J. & García-Gonzalo, E. & Sánchez Lasheras, F. & de Cos Juez, F.J., 2015. "Hybrid PSO–SVM-based method for forecasting of the remaining useful life for aircraft engines and evaluation of its reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 219-231.
    16. Marlow, David R. & Beale, David J. & Mashford, John S., 2012. "Risk-based prioritization and its application to inspection of valves in the water sector," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 67-74.
    17. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    18. Tasneem Bani-Mustafa & Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Dominique Vasseur & Francois Beaudouin, 2020. "A hierarchical tree-based decision-making approach for assessing the relative trustworthiness of risk assessment models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(6), pages 748-763, December.
    19. Salomon, Julian & Winnewisser, Niklas & Wei, Pengfei & Broggi, Matteo & Beer, Michael, 2021. "Efficient reliability analysis of complex systems in consideration of imprecision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Kaya, Gulsum Kubra & Hocaoglu, Mehmet Fatih, 2020. "Semi-quantitative application to the Functional Resonance Analysis Method for supporting safety management in a complex health-care process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:163:y:2017:i:c:p:22-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.