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Quantifying Adversary Capabilities to Inform Defensive Resource Allocation

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  • Chen Wang
  • Vicki M. Bier

Abstract

We propose a Bayesian Stackelberg game capable of analyzing the joint effects of both attacker intent and capabilities on optimal defensive strategies. The novel feature of our model is the use of contest success functions from economics to capture the extent to which the success of an attack is attributable to the adversary's capability (as well as the level of defensive investment), rather than pure luck. Results of a two‐target example suggest that precise assessment of attacker intent may not be necessary if we have poor estimates of attacker capability.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen Wang & Vicki M. Bier, 2016. "Quantifying Adversary Capabilities to Inform Defensive Resource Allocation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 756-775, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:4:p:756-775
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12399
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Edouard Kujawski, 2016. "A Probabilistic Game‐Theoretic Method to Assess Deterrence and Defense Benefits of Security Systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 549-566, November.
    3. Ridwan Al Aziz & Meilin He & Jun Zhuang, 2020. "An Attacker–defender Resource Allocation Game with Substitution and Complementary Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1481-1506, July.
    4. Jalali, Sajjad & Seifbarghy, Mehdi & Niaki, Seyed Taghi Akhavan, 2018. "A risk-averse location-protection problem under intentional facility disruptions: A modified hybrid decomposition algorithm," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 196-219.
    5. Zhang, Jing & Zhuang, Jun, 2019. "Modeling a multi-target attacker-defender game with multiple attack types," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 465-475.
    6. Han, Lin & Zhao, Xudong & Chen, Zhilong & Wu, Yipeng & Su, Xiaochao & Zhang, Ning, 2021. "Optimal allocation of defensive resources to defend urban power networks against different types of attackers," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    7. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.

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