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The Economics Of Homeland Security Expenditures: Foundational Expected Cost‐Effectiveness Approaches

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  • SCOTT FARROW

Abstract

While most economists expect some marginal conditions to result from basic expected value models involving government expenditures and homeland security investments, such models are not readily found in the literature. The article presents six basic models that all incorporate uncertainty; they also capture various problems involving technological limits, behavioral interactions, false negatives and false positives, and decision making with uncertainty and irreversibility. Recent reviews of homeland security programs by the U.S. Government Accountability Office are used to illustrate the relevance of the models.(JEL H100)

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  • Scott Farrow, 2007. "The Economics Of Homeland Security Expenditures: Foundational Expected Cost‐Effectiveness Approaches," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 14-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:25:y:2007:i:1:p:14-26
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.2006.00029.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kunreuther, Howard & Heal, Geoffrey, 2003. "Interdependent Security," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 231-249, March-May.
    2. Graham, Daniel A, 1981. "Cost-Benefit Analysis under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 715-725, September.
    3. Kenneth J. Arrow & Robert C. Lind, 1974. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 3, pages 54-75, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Machina, Mark J, 1987. "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 121-154, Summer.
    5. L. Eeckhoudt & C. Gollier & H. Schlesinger, 2005. "Economic and financial decisions under risk," Post-Print hal-00325882, HAL.
    6. Farrow, Scott & Morel, Benoit, 2001. "Continuation rights, precautionary principle, and global change," Risk, Decision and Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 145-155, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Zhuang & Vicki M. Bier, 2007. "Balancing Terrorism and Natural Disasters---Defensive Strategy with Endogenous Attacker Effort," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 976-991, October.
    2. Anthony M. Barrett, 2010. "Cost Effectiveness of On-Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 366-377, December.
    3. Yang Jiao & Zijun Luo, 2019. "A model of terrorism and counterterrorism with location choices," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 179(3), pages 301-313, June.
    4. Detlof von Winterfeldt & R. Scott Farrow & Richard S. John & Jonathan Eyer & Adam Z. Rose & Heather Rosoff, 2020. "Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk‐Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 450-475, March.
    5. Opher Baron & Oded Berman & Arieh Gavious, 2018. "A Game Between a Terrorist and a Passive Defender," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 27(3), pages 433-457, March.
    6. Timothy Mathews & Anton D. Lowenberg, 2012. "The Interdependence Between Homeland Security Efforts of a State and a Terrorist’s Choice of Attack," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(2), pages 195-218, April.
    7. Scott Farrow & W. Kip Viscusi, 2013. "Towards principles and standards for the benefit–cost analysis of safety," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 5, pages 172-193, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Kevin Boyle & Sapna Kaul & Ali Hashemi & Xiaoshu Li, 2015. "Applicability of benefit transfers for evaluation of homeland security counterterrorism measures," Chapters, in: Carol Mansfield & V. K. Smith (ed.), Benefit–Cost Analyses for Security Policies, chapter 10, pages 225-253, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Farrow Scott & Shapiro Stuart, 2009. "The Benefit-Cost Analysis of Security Focused Regulations," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Hunt, Kyle & Agarwal, Puneet & Zhuang, Jun, 2022. "On the adoption of new technology to enhance counterterrorism measures: An attacker–defender game with risk preferences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    11. Scott Farrow, 2015. "A comparison of key benefit estimation issues for natural hazards and terrorism: ex ante/ex post valuation and endogenous risk," Chapters, in: Carol Mansfield & V. K. Smith (ed.), Benefit–Cost Analyses for Security Policies, chapter 6, pages 140-154, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Chen Wang & Vicki M. Bier, 2016. "Quantifying Adversary Capabilities to Inform Defensive Resource Allocation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 756-775, April.

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