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Miscommunicating Risk, Uncertainty, and Causation: Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality Risk as an Example

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  • Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox

Abstract

A recent paper in this journal (Fann et al., 2012) estimated that “about 80,000 premature mortalities would be avoided by lowering PM2.5 levels to 5 μg/m3 nationwide” and that 2005 levels of PM2.5 cause about 130,000 premature mortalities per year among people over age 29, with a 95% confidence interval of 51,000 to 200,000 premature mortalities per year.(1) These conclusions depend entirely on misinterpreting statistical coefficients describing the association between PM2.5 and mortality rates in selected studies and models as if they were known to be valid causal coefficients. But they are not, and both the expert opinions of EPA researchers and analysis of data suggest that a true value of zero for the PM2.5 mortality causal coefficient is not excluded by available data. Presenting continuous confidence intervals that exclude the discrete possibility of zero misrepresents what is currently known (and not known) about the hypothesized causal relation between changes in PM2.5 levels and changes in mortality rates, suggesting greater certainty about projected health benefits than is justified.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, 2012. "Miscommunicating Risk, Uncertainty, and Causation: Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality Risk as an Example," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 765-767, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:5:p:765-767
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01806.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neal Fann & Amy D. Lamson & Susan C. Anenberg & Karen Wesson & David Risley & Bryan J. Hubbell, 2012. "Estimating the National Public Health Burden Associated with Exposure to Ambient PM2.5 and Ozone," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 81-95, January.
    2. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2004. "Measuring the health effects of air pollution: to what extent can we really say that people are dying from bad air?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 30-54, January.
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    1. Art Fraas & Randall Lutter, 2013. "Uncertain Benefits Estimates for Reductions in Fine Particle Concentrations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 434-449, March.
    2. Neal Fann & Amy D. Lamson & Susan C. Anenberg & Karen Wesson & David Risley & Bryan J. Hubbell, 2012. "Response to Cox Letter: “Miscommunicating Risk, Uncertainty, and Causation: Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality Risk as an Example”," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 768-770, May.

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