IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v29y2009i7p949-962.html

Assessing Infection Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence M. Wein
  • Michael P. Atkinson

Abstract

We construct a mathematical model of aerosol (i.e., droplet‐nuclei) transmission of influenza within a household containing one infected and embed it into an epidemic households model in which infecteds occasionally infect someone from another household; in a companion paper, we argue that the contribution from contact transmission is trivial for influenza and the contribution from droplet transmission is likely to be small. Our model predicts that the key infection control measure is the use of N95 respirators, and that the combination of respirators, humidifiers, and ventilation reduces the threshold parameter (which dictates whether or not an epidemic breaks out) by ≈20% if 70% of households comply, and by ≈40% if 70% of households and workplaces comply (≈28% reduction would have been required to control the 1918 pandemic). However, only ≈30% of the benefits in the household are achieved if these interventions are used only after the infected develops symptoms. It is also important for people to sleep in separate bedrooms throughout the pandemic, space permitting. Surgical masks with a device (e.g., nylon hosiery) to reduce face‐seal leakage are a reasonable alternative to N95 respirators if the latter are in short supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence M. Wein & Michael P. Atkinson, 2009. "Assessing Infection Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(7), pages 949-962, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:7:p:949-962
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01232.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01232.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01232.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Nicas & Gang Sun, 2006. "An Integrated Model of Infection Risk in a Health‐Care Environment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 1085-1096, August.
    2. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    3. J. O. Lloyd-Smith & S. J. Schreiber & P. E. Kopp & W. M. Getz, 2005. "Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 355-359, November.
    4. Christina E. Mills & James M. Robins & Marc Lipsitch, 2004. "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7019), pages 904-906, December.
    5. Kyoko Shinya & Masahito Ebina & Shinya Yamada & Masao Ono & Noriyuki Kasai & Yoshihiro Kawaoka, 2006. "Influenza virus receptors in the human airway," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7083), pages 435-436, March.
    6. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Policy responses

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rachael M. Jones & Elodie Adida, 2011. "Influenza Infection Risk and Predominate Exposure Route: Uncertainty Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1622-1631, October.
    2. Fatima‐Zohra Younsi & Salem Chakhar & Alessio Ishizaka & Djamila Hamdadou & Omar Boussaid, 2020. "A Dominance‐Based Rough Set Approach for an Enhanced Assessment of Seasonal Influenza Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1323-1341, July.
    3. Rachael M. Jones, 2011. "Critical Review and Uncertainty Analysis of Factors Influencing Influenza Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(8), pages 1226-1242, August.
    4. Lawrence M. Wein, 2009. "OR Forum---Homeland Security: From Mathematical Models to Policy Implementation: The 2008 Philip McCord Morse Lecture," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(4), pages 801-811, August.
    5. Edward M. Fisher & John D. Noti & William G. Lindsley & Francoise M. Blachere & Ronald E. Shaffer, 2014. "Validation and Application of Models to Predict Facemask Influenza Contamination in Healthcare Settings," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1423-1434, August.
    6. Ana Carolina Carioca da Costa & Cláudia Torres Codeço & Elias Teixeira Krainski & Marcelo Ferreira da Costa Gomes & Aline Araújo Nobre, 2018. "Spatiotemporal diffusion of influenza A (H1N1): Starting point and risk factors," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Martín López‐García & Marco‐Felipe King & Catherine J. Noakes, 2019. "A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection, Outbreak Management, and Infection Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1825-1842, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcel Salathé & James H Jones, 2010. "Dynamics and Control of Diseases in Networks with Community Structure," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(4), pages 1-11, April.
    2. Savachkin, Alex & Uribe, Andrés, 2012. "Dynamic redistribution of mitigation resources during influenza pandemics," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 33-45.
    3. repec:plo:pbio00:1000316 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Carrasco, L R & Lee, V J & Chen, M I & Matchar, D B & Thompson, J P & Cook, A R, 2011. "Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective," MPRA Paper 57763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Moshe B Hoshen & Anthony H Burton & Themis J V Bowcock, 2007. "Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-34.
    6. repec:plo:pone00:0001478 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ali Ekici & Pınar Keskinocak & Julie L. Swann, 2014. "Modeling Influenza Pandemic and Planning Food Distribution," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 11-27, February.
    8. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    9. Victor W. Chu & Raymond K. Wong & Chi-Hung Chi & Wei Zhou & Ivan Ho, 2017. "The design of a cloud-based tracker platform based on system-of-systems service architecture," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 1283-1299, December.
    10. repec:plo:pone00:0001519 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Eva K. Lee & Ferdinand Pietz & Bernard Benecke & Jacquelyn Mason & Greg Burel, 2013. "Advancing Public Health and Medical Preparedness with Operations Research," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 79-98, February.
    12. Han, Dun & Li, Yuling & Wang, Juquan & Ke, Jia, 2025. "On epidemic spread in a multiplex-metapopulation-like network with coupled negative and positive information interaction," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    13. Akira Watanabe & Hiroyuki Matsuda, 2023. "Effectiveness of feedback control and the trade-off between death by COVID-19 and costs of countermeasures," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.
    14. Andy Hong & Sandip Chakrabarti, 2023. "Compact living or policy inaction? Effects of urban density and lockdown on the COVID-19 outbreak in the US," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(9), pages 1588-1609, July.
    15. repec:plo:pone00:0050948 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michele, 2024. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    17. Warren Jochem & Kelly Sims & Edward Bright & Marie Urban & Amy Rose & Phillip Coleman & Budhendra Bhaduri, 2013. "Estimating traveler populations at airport and cruise terminals for population distribution and dynamics," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1325-1342, September.
    18. Cuñat, Alejandro & Zymek, Robert, 2022. "The (structural) gravity of epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Ayaz Hyder & David L Buckeridge & Brian Leung, 2013. "Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-20, June.
    20. repec:plo:pone00:0001790 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Arenas, Abbiana R. & Thackar, Neil B. & Haskell, Evan C., 2017. "The logistic growth model as an approximating model for viral load measurements of influenza A virus," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 206-222.
    22. repec:plo:pone00:0043528 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:plo:pone00:0014505 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Rachael M. Jones & Elodie Adida, 2011. "Influenza Infection Risk and Predominate Exposure Route: Uncertainty Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1622-1631, October.
    25. repec:plo:pone00:0032203 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. repec:plo:pcbi00:1001021 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "The benefits of combining early aspecific vaccination with later specific vaccination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 606-619.
    28. Elnaz Karimi & Ketra Schmitt & Ali Akgunduz, 2015. "Effect of individual protective behaviors on influenza transmission: an agent-based model," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 318-333, September.
    29. George J Milne & Nilimesh Halder & Joel K Kelso, 2013. "The Cost Effectiveness of Pandemic Influenza Interventions: A Pandemic Severity Based Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:7:p:949-962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.