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The Effect of Mask Use on the Spread of Influenza During a Pandemic

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  • Nicole C. J. Brienen
  • Aura Timen
  • Jacco Wallinga
  • Jim E. Van Steenbergen
  • Peter F. M. Teunis

Abstract

Face masks have traditionally been used in general infection control, but their efficacy at the population level in preventing transmission of influenza viruses has not been studied in detail. Data from published clinical studies indicate that the infectivity of influenza A virus is probably very high, so that transmission of infection may involve low doses of virus. At low doses, the relation between dose and the probability of infection is approximately linear, so that the reduction in infection risk is proportional to the reduction in exposure due to particle retention of the mask. A population transmission model was set up to explore the impact of population‐wide mask use, allowing estimation of the effects of mask efficacy and coverage (fraction of the population wearing masks) on the basic reproduction number and the infection attack rate. We conclude that population‐wide use of face masks could make an important contribution in delaying an influenza pandemic. Mask use also reduces the reproduction number, possibly even to levels sufficient for containing an influenza outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole C. J. Brienen & Aura Timen & Jacco Wallinga & Jim E. Van Steenbergen & Peter F. M. Teunis, 2010. "The Effect of Mask Use on the Spread of Influenza During a Pandemic," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1210-1218, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:8:p:1210-1218
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01428.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. José M. Garrido & David Martínez-Rodríguez & Fernando Rodríguez-Serrano & Sorina-M. Sferle & Rafael-J. Villanueva, 2021. "Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Edward M. Fisher & John D. Noti & William G. Lindsley & Francoise M. Blachere & Ronald E. Shaffer, 2014. "Validation and Application of Models to Predict Facemask Influenza Contamination in Healthcare Settings," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1423-1434, August.
    3. Amani Salem Alqahtani & Meshael Mohammed Alrasheed & Ada Mohammed Alqunaibet, 2021. "Public Response, Anxiety and Behaviour during the First Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Sunhee Kim & Seoyong Kim, 2020. "Analysis of the Impact of Health Beliefs and Resource Factors on Preventive Behaviors against the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Christos Nicolaides & Demetris Avraam & Luis Cueto‐Felgueroso & Marta C. González & Ruben Juanes, 2020. "Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 723-740, April.
    6. Martín López‐García & Marco‐Felipe King & Catherine J. Noakes, 2019. "A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection, Outbreak Management, and Infection Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1825-1842, August.
    7. Taixiang Duan & Hechao Jiang & Xiangshu Deng & Qiongwen Zhang & Fang Wang, 2020. "Government Intervention, Risk Perception, and the Adoption of Protective Action Recommendations: Evidence from the COVID-19 Prevention and Control Experience of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Rachael M. Jones & Elodie Adida, 2013. "Selecting Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Influenza," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(8), pages 1473-1488, August.
    9. Alistair Munro, 2020. "Is the Price System or Rationing More Effective in Getting a Mask to Those Who Need It Most?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 655-663, August.

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