IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v39y2019i8p1825-1842.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection, Outbreak Management, and Infection Control

Author

Listed:
  • Martín López‐García
  • Marco‐Felipe King
  • Catherine J. Noakes

Abstract

In this work, we study the environmental and operational factors that influence airborne transmission of nosocomial infections. We link a deterministic zonal ventilation model for the airborne distribution of infectious material in a hospital ward, with a Markovian multicompartment SIS model for the infection of individuals within this ward, in order to conduct a parametric study on ventilation rates and their effect on the epidemic dynamics. Our stochastic model includes arrival and discharge of patients, as well as the detection of the outbreak by screening events or due to symptoms being shown by infective patients. For each ventilation setting, we measure the infectious potential of a nosocomial outbreak in the hospital ward by means of a summary statistic: the number of infections occurred within the hospital ward until end or declaration of the outbreak. We analytically compute the distribution of this summary statistic, and carry out local and global sensitivity analysis in order to identify the particular characteristics of each ventilation regime with the largest impact on the epidemic spread. Our results show that ward ventilation can have a significant impact on the infection spread, especially under slow detection scenarios or in overoccupied wards, and that decreasing the infection risk for the whole hospital ward might increase the risk in specific areas of the health‐care facility. Moreover, the location of the initial infective individual and the protocol in place for outbreak declaration both form an interplay with ventilation of the ward.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín López‐García & Marco‐Felipe King & Catherine J. Noakes, 2019. "A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection, Outbreak Management, and Infection Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1825-1842, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:8:p:1825-1842
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13300
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13300
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.13300?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gwangpyo Ko & Harriet A. Burge & Edward A. Nardell & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2001. "Estimation of Tuberculosis Risk and Incidence under Upper Room Ultraviolet Germicidal Irradiation in a Waiting Room in a Hypothetical Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 657-674, August.
    2. Chung‐Min Liao & Chao‐Fang Chang & Huang‐Min Liang, 2005. "A Probabilistic Transmission Dynamic Model to Assess Indoor Airborne Infection Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1097-1107, October.
    3. Gwangpyo Ko & Kimberly M. Thompson & Edward A. Nardell, 2004. "Estimation of Tuberculosis Risk on a Commercial Airliner," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(2), pages 379-388, April.
    4. Lawrence M. Wein & Michael P. Atkinson, 2009. "Assessing Infection Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(7), pages 949-962, July.
    5. Nicole C. J. Brienen & Aura Timen & Jacco Wallinga & Jim E. Van Steenbergen & Peter F. M. Teunis, 2010. "The Effect of Mask Use on the Spread of Influenza During a Pandemic," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1210-1218, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali Alsaegh & Elena Belova & Yuriy Vasil’ev & Nadezhda Zabroda & Lyudmila Severova & Margarita Timofeeva & Denis Dobrokhotov & Alevtina Leonova & Oleg Mitrokhin, 2021. "COVID-19 in Dental Settings: Novel Risk Assessment Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-10, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edward M. Fisher & John D. Noti & William G. Lindsley & Francoise M. Blachere & Ronald E. Shaffer, 2014. "Validation and Application of Models to Predict Facemask Influenza Contamination in Healthcare Settings," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1423-1434, August.
    2. Gao, Qingwu & Zhuang, Jun, 2020. "Stability analysis and control strategies for worm attack in mobile networks via a VEIQS propagation model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    3. Christos Nicolaides & Demetris Avraam & Luis Cueto‐Felgueroso & Marta C. González & Ruben Juanes, 2020. "Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 723-740, April.
    4. Fatima‐Zohra Younsi & Salem Chakhar & Alessio Ishizaka & Djamila Hamdadou & Omar Boussaid, 2020. "A Dominance‐Based Rough Set Approach for an Enhanced Assessment of Seasonal Influenza Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1323-1341, July.
    5. Ana Carolina Carioca da Costa & Cláudia Torres Codeço & Elias Teixeira Krainski & Marcelo Ferreira da Costa Gomes & Aline Araújo Nobre, 2018. "Spatiotemporal diffusion of influenza A (H1N1): Starting point and risk factors," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Taixiang Duan & Hechao Jiang & Xiangshu Deng & Qiongwen Zhang & Fang Wang, 2020. "Government Intervention, Risk Perception, and the Adoption of Protective Action Recommendations: Evidence from the COVID-19 Prevention and Control Experience of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Szu‐Chieh Chen & Chung‐Min Liao & Sih‐Syuan Li & Shu‐Han You, 2011. "A Probabilistic Transmission Model to Assess Infection Risk from Mycobacterium Tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Trains," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 930-939, June.
    8. Alistair Munro, 2020. "Is the Price System or Rationing More Effective in Getting a Mask to Those Who Need It Most?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 655-663, August.
    9. Rachael M. Jones & Yoshifumi Masago & Timothy Bartrand & Charles N. Haas & Mark Nicas & Joan B. Rose, 2009. "Characterizing the Risk of Infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Aircraft Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 355-365, March.
    10. Sunhee Kim & Seoyong Kim, 2020. "Analysis of the Impact of Health Beliefs and Resource Factors on Preventive Behaviors against the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Rachael M. Jones & Elodie Adida, 2011. "Influenza Infection Risk and Predominate Exposure Route: Uncertainty Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1622-1631, October.
    12. José M. Garrido & David Martínez-Rodríguez & Fernando Rodríguez-Serrano & Sorina-M. Sferle & Rafael-J. Villanueva, 2021. "Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Rachael M. Jones, 2011. "Critical Review and Uncertainty Analysis of Factors Influencing Influenza Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(8), pages 1226-1242, August.
    14. Lawrence M. Wein, 2009. "OR Forum---Homeland Security: From Mathematical Models to Policy Implementation: The 2008 Philip McCord Morse Lecture," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(4), pages 801-811, August.
    15. Namilae, S. & Srinivasan, A. & Mubayi, A. & Scotch, M. & Pahle, R., 2017. "Self-propelled pedestrian dynamics model: Application to passenger movement and infection propagation in airplanes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 248-260.
    16. Rachael M. Jones & Elodie Adida, 2013. "Selecting Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Influenza," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(8), pages 1473-1488, August.
    17. Yakubenko, Slava, 2021. "Home alone? Effect of weather-induced behaviour on spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    18. Chung‐Min Liao & Chao‐Fang Chang & Huang‐Min Liang, 2005. "A Probabilistic Transmission Dynamic Model to Assess Indoor Airborne Infection Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1097-1107, October.
    19. Gwangpyo Ko & Kimberly M. Thompson & Edward A. Nardell, 2004. "Estimation of Tuberculosis Risk on a Commercial Airliner," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(2), pages 379-388, April.
    20. Amani Salem Alqahtani & Meshael Mohammed Alrasheed & Ada Mohammed Alqunaibet, 2021. "Public Response, Anxiety and Behaviour during the First Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-14, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:8:p:1825-1842. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.