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Floods and Climate Change: Interactions and Impacts

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  • Axel Bronstert

Abstract

Whether the floods experienced during the last decade in Germany and in other European countries are triggered or worsened by human activities has been the subject of a great deal of debate. Possible anthropogenic activities leading to increased flood risk include river regulation measures, intensified land use and forestry, and emissions of greenhouse gases causing a change in the global climate. This article discusses the latter by reviewing the existing knowledge on the subject. First, the relevance, capabilities, and limitations of climate models for the simulation and analysis of flood risk under aspects of the anthropogenic climate change are described. Special consideration is given here to differences between the “typical” spatial scale of climate models and hydrological flood models. Second, observations of trends in climate variables relevant for river flooding issues are summarized. Special emphasis is put on the Rhine and other German catchment areas. Third, the possibilities of modeling the different parts of the “cascade of flood risk” are summarized, introducing the special features of meteorological, hydrological, and river hydraulic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Axel Bronstert, 2003. "Floods and Climate Change: Interactions and Impacts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 545-557, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:23:y:2003:i:3:p:545-557
    DOI: 10.1111/1539-6924.00335
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    1. Chong-yu Xu, 1999. "Climate Change and Hydrologic Models: A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(5), pages 369-382, October.
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    Cited by:

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    3. B. Wilhelm & F. Arnaud & D. Enters & F. Allignol & A. Legaz & O. Magand & S. Revillon & C. Giguet-Covex & E. Malet, 2012. "Does global warming favour the occurrence of extreme floods in European Alps? First evidences from a NW Alps proglacial lake sediment record," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 563-581, August.
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    5. Shaochun Huang & Fred Hattermann & Valentina Krysanova & Axel Bronstert, 2013. "Projections of climate change impacts on river flood conditions in Germany by combining three different RCMs with a regional eco-hydrological model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 631-663, February.
    6. Shilu Tong & Peter Mather & Gerry Fitzgerald & David McRae & Ken Verrall & Dylan Walker, 2010. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Matthew R. Sloggy & Jordan F. Suter & Mani Rouhi Rad & Dale T. Manning & Chris Goemans, 2021. "Changing opinions on a changing climate: the effects of natural disasters on public perceptions of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-26, October.
    8. Posthumus, H. & Hewett, C.J.M. & Morris, J. & Quinn, P.F., 2008. "Agricultural land use and flood risk management: Engaging with stakeholders in North Yorkshire," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 787-798, July.
    9. Michael Siegrist & Heinz Gutscher, 2006. "Flooding Risks: A Comparison of Lay People's Perceptions and Expert's Assessments in Switzerland," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 971-979, August.
    10. Michael Siegrist & Heinz Gutscher, 2008. "Natural Hazards and Motivation for Mitigation Behavior: People Cannot Predict the Affect Evoked by a Severe Flood," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 771-778, June.
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    12. Candau, Fabien & Regnacq, Charles & Schlick, Julie, 2022. "Climate change, comparative advantage and the water capability to produce agricultural goods," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Ibrahim Sufiyan & Magaji J.I & A.T. Ogah, 2020. "Hydrologic Assessment Of Food Using SWAT As Geospatial Techniques In The Catchment Area Of Terengganu Malaysia," Malaysian Journal of Geosciences (MJG), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 90-95, August.
    14. Khabat Khosravi & Ebrahim Nohani & Edris Maroufinia & Hamid Reza Pourghasemi, 2016. "A GIS-based flood susceptibility assessment and its mapping in Iran: a comparison between frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence bivariate statistical models with multi-criteria decision-making techn," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 947-987, September.
    15. T. Hlásny & Z. Sitková & I. Barka, 2013. "Regional assessment of forest effect on watershed hydrology: Slovakia as a case study," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(10), pages 405-415.
    16. Deolfa Josè Moisès & Olivia Kunguma, 2022. "Strengthening Namibia’s Flood Early Warning System through a Critical Gap Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, December.
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