Climate change, hailstorm incidence, and livelihood security: a perspective from Kashmir valley India

The North-Western Himalayas are becoming the hotspots for hydro-meteorological catastrophes due to climate change implications. Present study aims to analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of hailstorms, posing a threat to livelihood security in the Valley of Kashmir on account of significant land use shift from agriculture to horticulture which is highly susceptible to hail hazard. The mean maximum and mean minimum temperature and annual rainfall for Qazigund, Kupwara and Srinagar weather stations were analysed through statistical treatments like Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator. To establish the land use change scenario, area under horticulture and under Apple was calculated and demonstrated with the help of regression analysis. Hailstorm incidents were calculated through the archival newspapers from 2007 to 2022 and mapped spatio-temporally in GIS environment. Additionally, to forecast the near-term hail scenario, a trendline was established by using Linear Regression Equation for a period of 2022–2040. Furthermore, a 4 Point Likert scale survey for evaluating the perception of people regarding the changing climatic scenarios and intensification of hailstorm activity was carried out throughout the valley. A total of 203 hailstorm events have occurred from year 2007 to 2022. The findings reveal that the hail storm intensity and frequency has increased with the corresponding increase in temperature and decline in rainfall on account of changing Climatic scenarios across the Kashmir Valley. There has been an increase in hailstorms from 2 events in the year 2007 to 27 events in 2022. North-Kashmir districts, namely Baramulla and Kupwara are emerging as the hail storm hot spots during the spring seasons due to their location around the entrance corridor of western disturbance. The southern districts of Pulwama, Shopian and Anantnag have witnessed enhanced summer hailstorm activity probably under the influence of south-west monsoons. The forecast indicated a significant increase in the hailstorm occurrence with an R2 value of 0.83. The study also concludes that hailstorms are responsible for (30–70%) loss in the productivity of horticulture in the affected areas, thereby threatening livelihood of millions of farmers. Furthermore, the study indicates that the region does not have adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies in place as only 0.06% of the horticulturists are having Anti-hail net protection while as the crop insurance-cover is almost non-existent. The study shall be helpful in developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to combat the hail hazard for securing livelihoods by promoting sustainable horticulture in the region.