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Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains

Author

Listed:
  • Kelly Mahoney

    (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, (Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise Fellowship Program/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and US Bureau of Reclamation))

  • Michael A. Alexander

    (NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory)

  • Gregory Thompson

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Joseph J. Barsugli

    (NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado)

  • James D. Scott

    (NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, and CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center)

Abstract

The effect of a warming climate on hailstorm frequency and intensity is largely unknown. Global climate models have too coarse resolution to simulate hailstorms explicitly; thus it is unclear if a warmer climate will change hailstorm frequency and intensity, and if so, whether such events will become more likely through intensified thunderstorms or less likely owing to overall warmer conditions. Here we investigate hail generation and maintenance for warm-season extreme precipitation events in Colorado, USA, for both present-day and projected future climates using high-resolution model simulations capable of resolving hailstorms. Most simulations indicate a near-elimination of hail at the surface in future simulations for this region, despite more intense future storms and significantly larger amounts of hail generated in-cloud. An increase in the height of the environmental melting level due to climate warming is found to be the primary reason for the disappearance of surface hail, as the warmer atmosphere increases the melting of frozen precipitation. A decrease in future surface hail at high-elevation locations may imply potential changes in both hail damage and flood risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly Mahoney & Michael A. Alexander & Gregory Thompson & Joseph J. Barsugli & James D. Scott, 2012. "Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 125-131, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:2:y:2012:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate1344
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1344
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    Cited by:

    1. Derya Deniz & Erin E. Arneson & Abbie B. Liel & Shideh Dashti & Amy N. Javernick-Will, 2017. "Flood loss models for residential buildings, based on the 2013 Colorado floods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 977-1003, January.
    2. Vittorio Gensini & Thomas Mote, 2015. "Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 307-321, March.
    3. F. G. Santeramo & B. K. Goodwin & F. Adinolfi & F. Capitanio, 2016. "Farmer Participation, Entry and Exit Decisions in the Italian Crop Insurance Programme," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 639-657, September.
    4. Adam D. McCurdy & William R. Travis, 2017. "Simulated climate adaptation in stormwater systems: evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 214-229, June.

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