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Spatiotemporal variability and trends of hailstorms over India

Author

Listed:
  • A. V. M. Subba Rao

    (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • Fawaz Parapurath

    (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • M. A. Sarath Chandran

    (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • Santanu Kumar Bal

    (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • N. Manikandan

    (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • V. K. Singh

    (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

Abstract

Changes in hailstorm dynamics to climate variability/change have become a topic of community interest recently. However, the lack of persistent and homogenous observations makes it difficult to confidently describe either its spatial shifts or its inter-annual variations. India, prone to hailstorms is impacted adversely, especially during pre-monsoon season (February to April). In this study, a novel attempt is made to characterize the changes in dynamics and coverage of hailstorms in India at a district scale. Region-wise, state-wise, district-wise, & month-wise distributions were analysed using the datasets from 1975 to 2020 and the hail hotspots were delineated using Kernel Density estimation. Prominently, the trend analysis was performed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test & Sen’s slope estimator. The hail events have covered the majority of the country in the recent past (1998–2020) compared to 1975–1997 with a net increase of 307 events and maximum occurrence in the North and North-west region with a hailstorm density of 12.79%, confined to the period from January to May. Among the states, Himachal Pradesh recorded maximum hail events spread over the majority of the months despite Maharashtra (614) being the highest hailstorm-observed state of the country during the study period. Moreover, the district-level analysis revealed a considerable increasing trend in Delhi, Ranchi, Bhopal, and Raisen and decreasing trends in Mayurbhanj, Anantnag, and Jammu. However, Nagpur of Maharashtra state was the only district that recorded hailstorms in all years except 1977 and longest continuous streak of hail events for 14 days in a single month (March 1978). As far as months are concerned, March recorded the highest number of hail events (1046) followed by April (690) and February (592). It was also found that 62% of the districts in the country experienced at least one hail event and a significant positive trend in the inter-annual hailstorm events was observed with a Sen’s slope of 0.43 during the past 46 years. Therefore, this study will help in prioritizing and planning hail disaster management and enhancing preparedness for post-hail interventions in the hail hot spots of India.

Suggested Citation

  • A. V. M. Subba Rao & Fawaz Parapurath & M. A. Sarath Chandran & Santanu Kumar Bal & N. Manikandan & V. K. Singh, 2025. "Spatiotemporal variability and trends of hailstorms over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1687-1710, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06866-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06866-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julian C. Brimelow & William R. Burrows & John M. Hanesiak, 2017. "The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 516-522, July.
    2. Md Lamiur Raihan & Kenichiro Onitsuka & Mrittika Basu & Natsuki Shimizu & Satoshi Hoshino, 2020. "Rapid Emergence and Increasing Risks of Hailstorms: A Potential Threat to Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Kelly Mahoney & Michael A. Alexander & Gregory Thompson & Joseph J. Barsugli & James D. Scott, 2012. "Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 125-131, February.
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