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The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Julian C. Brimelow

    (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • William R. Burrows

    (Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • John M. Hanesiak

    (Centre for Earth Observation Science)

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian C. Brimelow & William R. Burrows & John M. Hanesiak, 2017. "The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 516-522, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:7:d:10.1038_nclimate3321
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3321
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    Cited by:

    1. Emőke Kiss & Dániel Balla & András Donát Kovács, 2022. "Characteristics of Climate Concern—Attitudes and Personal Actions—A Case Study of Hungarian Settlements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Marco Rogna & Günter Schamel & Alex Weissensteiner, 2023. "Modelling the switch from hail insurance to antihail nets," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(1), pages 118-136, January.
    3. Raúl Córdova & Nicholas J. Hogarth & Markku Kanninen, 2019. "Mountain Farming Systems’ Exposure and Sensitivity to Climate Change and Variability: Agroforestry and Conventional Agriculture Systems Compared in Ecuador’s Indigenous Territory of Kayambi People," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-30, May.
    4. M. Nuncio & R. Athulya & Naveen Nandanan & Sourav Chatterjee & K. Satheesan & Asutosh Acharya & M. P. Subeesh & P. J. Vidya, 2023. "Hails in Ny Alesund, Svalbard-atmospheric vertical structure and dependence on circulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1365-1380, June.
    5. Christopher T. Emrich & Yao Zhou & Sanam K. Aksha & Herbert E. Longenecker, 2022. "Creating a Nationwide Composite Hazard Index Using Empirically Based Threat Assessment Approaches Applied to Open Geospatial Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, February.

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