Simulating the future flood events and their impacts on critical infrastructure in Srinagar: a Himalayan urban centre

Modelling the flood hazard and projecting the probable impacts on critical infrastructure is valuable for managing and reducing future risks. River Jhelum has flooded frequently during the last century, resulting in loss of lives and properties in the Srinagar City. While the city is experiencing flood episodes recurrently, the understanding on spatial patterns of inundation and likely impacts on the critical infrastructure is largely unknown. The study performed flood frequency analysis using Gumbel and Log Pearson Type III distributions and simulated future flood scenarios for different return periods through a steady flow analysis using HEC RAS. For model efficacy the simulated floods were compared to the 2014 flooding event which revealed that the predicted results are well corroborated by the observed flood record. Flood inundation extent and depth maps were generated to identify the critical urban infrastructure likely to get affected by floods of different magnitudes. The analysis highlights the varying flood impacts across scenarios, emphasizing that even frequent, low-intensity flood events like a biennial flood can inundate 22% of the city while significantly affecting a portion of the city's infrastructure. However, the scale of impact increases dramatically under extreme, low-frequency flood events (500-year return period) submerging up to 54% of the city with water depths reaching ~ 26 feet in certain areas. Under these scenarios, critical services such as healthcare, fire and emergency, education, and administrative functions exhibit varying degrees of exposure, with a substantial portion of infrastructure exposed to severe flood risks during high-intensity events. The disproportionate impact on essential facilities underscores the critical need for prioritizing flood mitigation measures and resilient planning to safeguard the city’s socio-economic and administrative framework. The deliverables would be useful for policymakers in urban planning and formulating mitigation strategies to offset the adverse impacts of flooding in the city.