IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v135y2016i2p341-355.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Roudier
  • Jafet Andersson
  • Chantal Donnelly
  • Luc Feyen
  • Wouter Greuell
  • Fulco Ludwig

Abstract

We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results between northern and southern Europe. Flood magnitudes are expected to increase significantly south of 60 o N, except for some regions (Bulgaria, Poland, south of Spain) where the results are not significant. The sign of these changes are particularly robust in large parts of Romania, Ukraine, Germany, France and North of Spain. North of this line, floods are projected to decrease in most of Finland, NW Russia and North of Sweden, with the exception of southern Sweden and some coastal areas in Norway where floods may increase. The results concerning extreme droughts are less robust, especially for drought duration where the spread of the results among the members is quite high in some areas. Anyway, drought magnitude and duration may increase in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the Balkans, south of the UK and Ireland. Despite some remarkable differences among the hydrological models’ structure and calibration, the results are quite similar from one hydrological model to another. Finally, an analysis of floods and droughts together shows that the impact of a +2°C global warming will be most extreme for France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Albania. These results are particularly robust in southern France and northern Spain. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Roudier & Jafet Andersson & Chantal Donnelly & Luc Feyen & Wouter Greuell & Fulco Ludwig, 2016. "Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 341-355, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:2:p:341-355
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Renate Wilcke & Thomas Mendlik & Andreas Gobiet, 2013. "Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 871-887, October.
    2. Matthias Themeßl & Andreas Gobiet & Georg Heinrich, 2012. "Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 449-468, May.
    3. Shannon M. Sterling & Agnès Ducharne & Jan Polcher, 2013. "The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 385-390, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan Gaska, 2023. "Losses from Fluvial Floods in Poland over the 21st Century – Estimation Using the Productivity Costs Method," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 357-383, November.
    2. Ioannis Kougkoulos & Myriam Merad & Simon J. Cook & Ioannis Andredakis, 2021. "Floods in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and lessons for French flood risk governance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1959-1980, November.
    3. Nina Knittel & Martin W. Jury & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Gabriel Bachner & Andrea K. Steiner, 2020. "A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 251-269, May.
    4. A. L. Kay & V. A. Bell & B. P. Guillod & R. G. Jones & A. C. Rudd, 2018. "National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 585-599, April.
    5. Edwar Forero-Ortiz & Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz & Robert Monjo, 2020. "Climate Change Implications for Water Availability: A Case Study of Barcelona City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Thibault Lemaitre-Basset & Ludovic Oudin & Guillaume Thirel, 2022. "Evapotranspiration in hydrological models under rising CO2: a jump into the unknown," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    7. Mohammad Shafi Bhat & Sumira Mir & Hilal Ahmad Parrey & Irshad Ahmad Thoker & Shamim Ahmad Shah, 2024. "Climate change, hailstorm incidence, and livelihood security: a perspective from Kashmir valley India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(3), pages 2803-2827, February.
    8. Alison C. Rudd & A. L. Kay & V. A. Bell, 2019. "National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 323-340, October.
    9. Alison Kay, 2022. "Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-19, July.
    10. Joanna Nowak Da Costa & Beata Calka & Elzbieta Bielecka, 2021. "Urban Population Flood Impact Applied to a Warsaw Scenario," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    11. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Basil Ε. Psiloglou & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2403-2428, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philippe Roudier & Jafet C. M. Andersson & Chantal Donnelly & Luc Feyen & Wouter Greuell & Fulco Ludwig, 2016. "Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 341-355, March.
    2. Markus Stoffel & Thomas Mendlik & Michelle Schneuwly-Bollschweiler & Andreas Gobiet, 2014. "Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 141-155, January.
    3. A. Casanueva & J. Bedia & S. Herrera & J. Fernández & J. M. Gutiérrez, 2018. "Direct and component-wise bias correction of multi-variate climate indices: the percentile adjustment function diagnostic tool," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 411-425, April.
    4. Maikel Mendez & Luis-Alexander Calvo-Valverde & Pablo Imbach & Ben Maathuis & David Hein-Grigg & Jorge-Andrés Hidalgo-Madriz & Luis-Fernando Alvarado-Gamboa, 2022. "Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-31, December.
    5. Xu Chen & Ruiguang Han & Ping Feng & Yongjie Wang, 2022. "Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1305-1337, January.
    6. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    7. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    8. Dimas de Barros Santiago & Humberto Alves Barbosa & Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho & José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior & Franklin Paredes-Trejo & Catarina de Oliveira Buriti, 2022. "Variability of Water Use Efficiency Associated with Climate Change in the Extreme West of Bahia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-13, November.
    9. Qinghe Zhao & Shengyan Ding & Xiaoyu Ji & Zhendong Hong & Mengwen Lu & Peng Wang, 2021. "Relative Contribution of the Xiaolangdi Dam to Runoff Changes in the Lower Yellow River," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Matthew D. Senyshen & Dongmei Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Land Cover Change on Surface Water Temperature of Small Lakes in Eastern Ontario from 1985 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, February.
    11. Marcello Schiavina & Michele Melchiorri & Christina Corbane & Aneta J. Florczyk & Sergio Freire & Martino Pesaresi & Thomas Kemper, 2019. "Multi-Scale Estimation of Land Use Efficiency (SDG 11.3.1) across 25 Years Using Global Open and Free Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-25, October.
    12. V. Savo & K. E. Kohfeld & J. Sillmann & C. Morton & J. Bailey & A. S. Haslerud & C. Le Quéré & D. Lepofsky, 2024. "Using human observations with instrument-based metrics to understand changing rainfall patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Yi Yang & Jianping Tang, 2023. "Downscaling and uncertainty analysis of future concurrent long-duration dry and hot events in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-25, February.
    14. Cong Zhang & Xiaojun Yao & Guoyu Wang & Huian Jin & Te Sha & Xinde Chu & Juan Zhang & Juan Cao, 2022. "Temporal and Spatial Variation of Land Use and Vegetation in the Three–North Shelter Forest Program Area from 2000 to 2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.
    15. Dilayda Soylu Pekpostalci & Rifat Tur & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Mohammad Amin Vazifekhah Ghaffari & Dominika Dąbrowska & Vahid Nourani, 2023. "Drought Monitoring and Forecasting across Turkey: A Contemporary Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    16. Zafar Iqbal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Tarmizi Ismail & Zulfaqar Sa’adi & Aitazaz Farooque & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2022. "Distributed Hydrological Model Based on Machine Learning Algorithm: Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Floods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, May.
    17. Cheng He & Kangning Xiong & Yongkuan Chi & Shuzhen Song & Jinzhong Fang & Shuyu He, 2022. "Effects of Landscape Type Change on Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecological Assets in a Karst Plateau-Mountain Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-17, April.
    18. Yiming Wang & Yunfeng Hu & Xiaoyu Niu & Huimin Yan & Lin Zhen, 2022. "Land Use/Cover Change and Its Driving Mechanism in Thailand from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, May.
    20. Victoria M. Garibay & Margaret W. Gitau & Nicholas Kiggundu & Daniel Moriasi & Fulgence Mishili, 2021. "Evaluation of Reanalysis Precipitation Data and Potential Bias Correction Methods for Use in Data-Scarce Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1587-1602, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:2:p:341-355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.