Spatiotemporal dynamics of hailstorm activity and its implications on horticulture production in the northwest Himalaya

The Kashmir valley in the northwest Himalayas faces unprecedented climate change with erratic rainfall patterns and frequent extreme weather events in the form of hailstorms. These atmospheric disturbances adversely impact the horticultural produce of the region, undermining livelihood security and the economy, thus affecting millions of lives. In the present study, spatiotemporal dynamics of precipitation and subsequent hailstorm events from 1990 to 2020 and monthly dynamics of recent severe hailstorms from 2010 to 2022 in terms of frequency and devastation are meticulously analysed and mapped, spanning three main zones of Kashmir valley, including north, central and south zones. The analysis suggests a decreasing trend in the annual precipitation rates and increasing occurrences of severe hailstorm events (83) in Kashmir valley recorded during the last decade (2010–2022). The spatial distribution of severe hailstorm events indicates the highest occurrences in the north zone, followed by the south and central zones. Severe hailstorms occur predominantly from March to November, varying across the three zones, and a distinct clustering of peak incidences is observed from April to June. Furthermore, the spatio-temporal analysis suggests that an increase in the frequency of severe hailstorm episodes is closely related to a fall in overall precipitation to less than 90 mm in the north, 120 mm in the south, and 100 mm in the centre zone. During the year 2022, the highest number of severe hailstorm events (13) was recorded, resulting in an estimated 15–30% reduction in annual apple yield. The most significant impact and cumulative damage occurred in the north zone, accounting for ~ 30% of the total regional loss, followed by the south zone (26%) and central zone (15%), respectively. Our results show that the temporal clustering and uneven distribution of hailstorms serve as a warning of a broader and potentially more severe impacts of climate change that continue to threaten the horticultural economy in the Kashmir Valley.