IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v96y2019i3d10.1007_s11069-019-03587-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area

Author

Listed:
  • Wilmer Rey

    (Dirección General Marítima, Centro de Investigaciones Oceanográficas e Hidrográficas del Caribe, Barrio Bosque, Sector Manzanillo Escuela Naval
    UNAM)

  • E. Tonatiuh Mendoza

    (UNAM
    CONACyT)

  • Paulo Salles

    (UNAM
    CONACyT)

  • Keqi Zhang

    (Florida International University)

  • Yi-Chen Teng

    (National Central University
    Michael Baker International)

  • Miguel A. Trejo-Rangel

    (UNAM)

  • Gemma L. Franklin

    (UNAM
    CONACyT)

Abstract

In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the coastal area of the states of Yucatan and Campeche (Mexico). Based on climatology, more than 39,900 hypothetical hurricanes covering all possible directions of motion were synthesized. The storm intensity (category), forward speed, radius of maximum winds and the tide anomaly were varied for each hypothetical track. According to these scenarios, the potential storm surge and associated inundation threat were computed. Subsequently, the Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) and the Maximum of the MEOWs (MOMs) were calculated to assess the flood hazard induced by tropical cyclones under varying conditions. In addition, for each MOM, the socioeconomic vulnerability aspects were taken into account in order to assess the hurricane flood risk for the states of Yucatan and Campeche. Results show that the most vulnerable areas are the surroundings of Terminos lagoon, Campeche City and its neighboring areas in the state of Campeche. For Yucatan, the towns located in the Northwest (Celestun, Hunucma and Progreso) and the eastern part of the state presented the highest risk values. The methodology used in this study can be applied to other coastal zones of Mexico as well as places with similar attributes. Furthermore, the MEOW and MOM are very useful as a decision-making tool for prevention, preparedness, evacuation plans, mitigation of the flood hazard and its associated risk, and also for insurance companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilmer Rey & E. Tonatiuh Mendoza & Paulo Salles & Keqi Zhang & Yi-Chen Teng & Miguel A. Trejo-Rangel & Gemma L. Franklin, 2019. "Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1041-1065, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03587-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03587-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03587-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03587-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. George Clark & Susanne Moser & Samuel Ratick & Kirstin Dow & William Meyer & Srinivas Emani & Weigen Jin & Jeanne Kasperson & Roger Kasperson & Harry Schwarz, 1998. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Extreme Storms: The Case of Revere, MA., USA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 59-82, January.
    3. Axel Bronstert, 2003. "Floods and Climate Change: Interactions and Impacts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 545-557, June.
    4. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Michael Oppenheimer & Erik Vanmarcke, 2012. "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 462-467, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shangde Gao & Yan Wang, 2021. "Assessing the impact of geo-targeted warning messages on residents’ evacuation decisions before a hurricane using agent-based modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 123-146, May.
    2. Shuaikang Zhao & Ziwei Liu & Xiaoran Wei & Bo Li & Yefei Bai, 2021. "Intercomparison of Empirical Formulations of Maximum Wind Radius in Parametric Tropical Storm Modeling over Zhoushan Archipelago," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Pablo Ruiz-Salcines & Christian M. Appendini & Paulo Salles & Wilmer Rey & Jonathan L. Vigh, 2021. "On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 431-459, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
    2. S. Niggol Seo, 2017. "Measuring Policy Benefits Of The Cyclone Shelter Program In The North Indian Ocean: Protection From Intense Winds Or High Storm Surges?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Lee, Ji Yun & Ellingwood, Bruce R., 2017. "A decision model for intergenerational life-cycle risk assessment of civil infrastructure exposed to hurricanes under climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 100-107.
    4. Pugatch, Todd, 2019. "Tropical storms and mortality under climate change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 172-182.
    5. Xiaotong Sui & Mingzhao Hu & Haoyun Wang & Lingdi Zhao, 2023. "Improved elasticity estimation model for typhoon storm surge losses in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2363-2381, March.
    6. S. Niggol Seo & Laura A. Bakkensen, 2016. "Did adaptation strategies work? High fatalities from tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and future vulnerability under global warming," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1341-1355, June.
    7. Chang, Carolyn W. & Wang, Yu-Jen & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Catastrophe bond spread and hurricane arrival frequency," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Pablo Ruiz-Salcines & Christian M. Appendini & Paulo Salles & Wilmer Rey & Jonathan L. Vigh, 2021. "On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 431-459, January.
    9. Karthik Balaguru & David R. Judi & L. Ruby Leung, 2016. "Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 99-110, September.
    10. Stanley Changnon, 2009. "Characteristics of severe Atlantic hurricanes in the United States: 1949–2006," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(3), pages 329-337, March.
    11. Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 784-796.
    12. Brokovich, E. & Schwarz, A.M. & Oeta, J., 2012. "Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands: PASAP country activity for Solomon Islands: Brief review: climate change trends and projections for Solomon Isl," Monographs, The WorldFish Center, number 40178, April.
    13. Eric Tate, 2012. "Social vulnerability indices: a comparative assessment using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 325-347, September.
    14. Shibly Shahrier & Koji Kotani, 2016. "Labor Donation Or Money Donation? Pro-Sociality On Prevention Of Natural Disasters In A Case Of Cyclone Aila, Bangladesh," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-26, March.
    15. Teh, Su Yean & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Sternberg, Leonel da Silveira Lobo & Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. & Smith, Thomas J. & Koh, Hock-Lye, 2008. "A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 245-256.
    16. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne & Bezmaternykh, Natalia & Eklou, Kodjovi M., 2023. "In the eye of the storm: Firms and capital destruction in India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Yanos Zylberberg, 2010. "Natural natural disasters and economic disruption," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564946, HAL.
    18. S. Seo, 2014. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 473-490, July.
    19. Nicola Ranger & Falk Nieh�rster, 2011. "Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments," GRI Working Papers 51, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03587-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.