Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments
Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation planning in exposed coastal communities. We present a framework to support the interpretation of current long-term tropical cyclone projections, which accommodates the nature of the uncertainty and aims to facilitate robust decision making using the information that is available today. The framework is populated with projections taken from the recent literature to develop a set of scenarios of long-term hurricane hazard. Hazard scenarios are then used to generate risk scenarios for Florida using a coupled climate-catastrophe modeling approach. The scenarios represent a broad range of plausible futures; from wind-related hurricane losses in Florida halving by the end of the century to more than a four-fold increase due to climate change alone. We suggest that it is not possible, based on current evidence, to meaningfully quantify the relative confidence of each scenario. The analyses also suggest that natural variability is likely to be the dominant driver of the level and volatility of wind-related risk over the coming decade; however, under the highest scenario, the superposition of this natural variability and anthropogenic climate change could mean notably increased levels of risk within the decade. Finally, we present a series of analyses to better understand the relative adequacy of the different models that underpin the scenarios and draw conclusions for the design of future climate science and modeling experiments to be most informative for adaptation.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE|
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham.
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fabian Barthel & Eric Neumayer, 2010.
"Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: a global analysis,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
37601, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Eric Neumayer & Fabian Barthel, 2011. "Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: a global analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 30785, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Eric Neumayer & Fabian Barthel, 2010. "Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: a global analysis," GRI Working Papers 31, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Postlewaite, Andrew & Schmeidler, David, 2009.
"Is It Always Rational To Satisfy Savage'S Axioms?,"
Economics and Philosophy,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 285-296, November.
- Gilboa,Itzhak, 2009.
"Theory of Decision under Uncertainty,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521741231, 1.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The GRI Administration)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.