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A decision model for intergenerational life-cycle risk assessment of civil infrastructure exposed to hurricanes under climate change

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  • Lee, Ji Yun
  • Ellingwood, Bruce R.

Abstract

Public awareness of civil infrastructure performance has increased considerably in recent years as a result of repeated natural disasters. Risks from natural hazards may increase dramatically in the future, given current patterns of urbanization and population growth in hazard-prone areas. Risk assessments for infrastructure with expected service periods of a century or more are highly uncertain, and there is compelling evidence that climatology will evolve over such intervals. Thus, current natural hazard and risk assessment models, which are based on a presumption of stationarity in hazard occurrence and intensity, may not be adequate to assess the potential risks from hazards occurring in the distant future. This paper addresses two significant intergenerational elements – the potential impact of non-stationarity in hazard due to climate change and intergenerational discounting practices – that are essential to provide an improved decision support framework that accommodates the needs and values of future generations. The framework so developed is tested through two benchmark problems involving buildings exposed to hurricanes.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Ji Yun & Ellingwood, Bruce R., 2017. "A decision model for intergenerational life-cycle risk assessment of civil infrastructure exposed to hurricanes under climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 100-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:159:y:2017:i:c:p:100-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.10.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hong, Xu & Wan, Zhiqiang & Chen, Jianbing, 2023. "Parallel assessment of the tropical cyclone wind hazard at multiple locations using the probability density evolution method integrated with the change of probability measure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Cao Wang & Hao Zhang & Kairui Feng & Quanwang Li, 2017. "A simple gradient wind field model for translating tropical cyclones," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 651-658, August.
    3. Shen, Zhonghui & Wei, Kai, 2021. "Stochastic model of tropical cyclones along China coast including the effects of spatial heterogeneity and ocean feedback," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Li, Yaohan & Dong, You & Qian, Jing, 2020. "Higher-order analysis of probabilistic long-term loss under nonstationary hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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