IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v216y2021ics095183202100510x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic model of tropical cyclones along China coast including the effects of spatial heterogeneity and ocean feedback

Author

Listed:
  • Shen, Zhonghui
  • Wei, Kai

Abstract

Historical tropical cyclones (TCs) are usually insufficient in determining extreme hazards due to limited data. This study developed a full-track stochastic model to generate synthetic TCs based on historical TCs and climatology data in Northwest Pacific. A variable geographical sampling approach was proposed to capture the spatial heterogeneity as a function of the density of historical TC data. The track model is derived using the Cartesian coordinate system and considers the statistical characteristics of TC lysis to simulate the TCs better regardless of their heading direction. The effect of ocean feedback was included in the TC intensity model by the one-dimensional ocean model. The track and intensity models were then validated with the statistical characteristics of historical TCs. The TC wind hazards along the China coast were assessed. The main findings include: (1) the developed TC track and intensity model agree well with the historical data; (2) the accuracy of stochastic modeling of TCs is enhanced by including the spatial heterogeneity; (3) considering ocean feedback by one-dimensional ocean model arrives in better modeling of TC intensity. The study provides an efficient tool to generate synthetic TCs for reliability and safety assessment of coastal infrastructures under typhoon-induced multiple hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen, Zhonghui & Wei, Kai, 2021. "Stochastic model of tropical cyclones along China coast including the effects of spatial heterogeneity and ocean feedback," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100510x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108000
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202100510X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.108000?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Xinhu & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2018. "Simulation-based catastrophe-induced port loss estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C. & Wanik, David & Pensado, Osvaldo & Yuan, Hao & Zhang, Jintao, 2021. "Damage modeling framework for resilience hardening strategy for overhead power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. S. H. Li & H. P. Hong, 2016. "Typhoon wind hazard estimation for China using an empirical track model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1009-1029, June.
    4. Hallowell, Spencer T. & Myers, Andrew T. & Arwade, Sanjay R. & Pang, Weichiang & Rawal, Prashant & Hines, Eric M. & Hajjar, Jerome F. & Qiao, Chi & Valamanesh, Vahid & Wei, Kai & Carswell, Wystan & Fo, 2018. "Hurricane risk assessment of offshore wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 234-249.
    5. Bernier, Carl & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Lee, Ji Yun & Ellingwood, Bruce R., 2017. "A decision model for intergenerational life-cycle risk assessment of civil infrastructure exposed to hurricanes under climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 100-107.
    7. Salman, Abdullahi M. & Li, Yue & Stewart, Mark G., 2015. "Evaluating system reliability and targeted hardening strategies of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 319-333.
    8. Scherb, Anke & Garrè, Luca & Straub, Daniel, 2019. "Evaluating component importance and reliability of power transmission networks subject to windstorms: methodology and application to the nordic grid," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Xue, Jiayue & Mohammadi, Farshad & Li, Xin & Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa & Ou, Ge & Pu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Impact of transmission tower-line interaction to the bulk power system during hurricane," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rui Tang & Yongyi Wang & Weili Zhang & Yuyong Jiao, 2022. "Load-Bearing Performance and Safety Assessment of Grid Pile Foundation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Cerrai, Diego & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Wanik, David & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2022. "A Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Model for Power Distribution System Infrastructure Hardening and Outage Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    3. Hong, Xu & Wan, Zhiqiang & Chen, Jianbing, 2023. "Parallel assessment of the tropical cyclone wind hazard at multiple locations using the probability density evolution method integrated with the change of probability measure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    4. Hu, Xiaonong & Fang, Genshen & Yang, Jiayu & Zhao, Lin & Ge, Yaojun, 2023. "Simplified models for uncertainty quantification of extreme events using Monte Carlo technique," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong, Xu & Wan, Zhiqiang & Chen, Jianbing, 2023. "Parallel assessment of the tropical cyclone wind hazard at multiple locations using the probability density evolution method integrated with the change of probability measure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Dikshit, Saransh & Alipour, Alice, 2023. "A moment-matching method for fragility analysis of transmission towers under straight line winds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Bi, Wenzhe & Tian, Li & Li, Chao & Ma, Zhen & Pan, Haiyang, 2023. "Wind-induced failure analysis of a transmission tower-line system with long-term measured data and orientation effect," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Venkateswaran V, Balaji & Saini, Devender Kumar & Sharma, Madhu, 2021. "Techno-economic hardening strategies to enhance distribution system resilience against earthquake," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    5. Kishore, Katchalla Bala & Gangolu, Jaswanth & Ramancha, Mukesh K. & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Performance-based probabilistic deflection capacity models and fragility estimation for reinforced concrete column and beam subjected to blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    6. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Cerrai, Diego & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Wanik, David & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2022. "A Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Model for Power Distribution System Infrastructure Hardening and Outage Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    7. Jalilpoor, Kamran & Oshnoei, Arman & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad, 2022. "Network hardening and optimal placement of microgrids to improve transmission system resilience: A two-stage linear program," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Zhang, Jintao & Bagtzoglou, Yiannis & Zhu, Jin & Li, Baikun & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Fragility-based system performance assessment of critical power infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    9. Hughes, William & Watson, Peter L. & Cerrai, Diego & Zhang, Xinxuan & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Zhang, Wei & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2024. "Assessing grid hardening strategies to improve power system performance during storms using a hybrid mechanistic-machine learning outage prediction model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    10. Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2024. "Probabilistic capacity models and fragility estimate for NRC and UHSC panels subjected to contact blast," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    11. Hou, Guangyang & Muraleetharan, Kanthasamy K. & Panchalogaranjan, Vinushika & Moses, Paul & Javid, Amir & Al-Dakheeli, Hussein & Bulut, Rifat & Campos, Richard & Harvey, P. Scott & Miller, Gerald & Bo, 2023. "Resilience assessment and enhancement evaluation of power distribution systems subjected to ice storms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    12. Jasiūnas, Justinas & Heikkinen, Tatu & Lund, Peter D. & Láng-Ritter, Ilona, 2023. "Resilience of electric grid to extreme wind: Considering local details at national scale," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    13. Gallaher, Adam & Graziano, Marcello & Fiaschetti, Maurizio, 2021. "Legacy and shockwaves: A spatial analysis of strengthening resilience of the power grid in Connecticut," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Zhai, Chengwei & Chen, Thomas Ying-jeh & White, Anna Grace & Guikema, Seth David, 2021. "Power outage prediction for natural hazards using synthetic power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    15. Popović, Željko N. & KovaÄ ki, Neven V. & Popović, Dragan S., 2020. "Resilient distribution network planning under the severe windstorms using a risk-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    16. Zou, Qiling & Chen, Suren, 2019. "Enhancing resilience of interdependent traffic-electric power system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Kresning, Boma & Hashemi, M. Reza & Shirvani, Amin & Hashemi, Javad, 2024. "Uncertainty of extreme wind and wave loads for marine renewable energy farms in hurricane-prone regions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    18. Zhou, Yusheng & Li, Xue & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2022. "Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    19. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    20. Wang, Hao & Wang, Tongguang & Ke, Shitang & Hu, Liang & Xie, Jiaojie & Cai, Xin & Cao, Jiufa & Ren, Yuxin, 2023. "Assessing code-based design wind loads for offshore wind turbines in China against typhoons," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 669-682.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100510x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.