IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v207y2021ics0951832020308565.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Damage modeling framework for resilience hardening strategy for overhead power distribution systems

Author

Listed:
  • Hughes, William
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C.
  • Wanik, David
  • Pensado, Osvaldo
  • Yuan, Hao
  • Zhang, Jintao

Abstract

Several disastrous storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012, that brought massive area power outages for several days and even weeks in some areas, highlight the necessity of enhancing the physical power distribution system, including the pole-wire network. To develop grid hardening strategies, accurate damage predictions from extreme weather events are needed to make decisions implementing cost-effective hazard preparation measures. Physics-based modeling supported by historical data has been found to better link extreme weather events, structural failure, and power outages for improved prediction of pole-wire system performance. A damage modeling framework for the overhead power distribution system (DM-OPD) is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of grid reliability enhancements under budgetary constraints. Monte Carlo simulation is used to consider various uncertainties of the power distribution system. The methodology is presented alongside a case study of conditions imposed by Hurricane Sandy in the State of Connecticut considering effects of aging infrastructure and pole replacement as a demonstrative hardening action. Due to uncertainties regarding several economic parameters, various scenarios are presented for utility companies to analyze the cost-effectiveness. The results indicate infrastructure age is a critical factor in the power system resilience under extreme storm events, with pole replacement having high potential for outage reductions. However, with its high associated costs, pole replacement should be reserved only for highly weakened poles.

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C. & Wanik, David & Pensado, Osvaldo & Yuan, Hao & Zhang, Jintao, 2021. "Damage modeling framework for resilience hardening strategy for overhead power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308565
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107367
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020308565
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107367?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven Quiring & Laiyin Zhu & Seth Guikema, 2011. "Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 365-390, July.
    2. Liu, Haibin & Davidson, Rachel A. & Apanasovich, Tatiyana V., 2008. "Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 897-912.
    3. Graziano, Marcello & Gunther, Peter & Gallaher, Adam & Carstensen, Fred V. & Becker, Brian, 2020. "The wider regional benefits of power grids improved resilience through tree-trimming operations evidences from Connecticut, USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    5. Seung‐Ryong Han & Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2009. "Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts Using Generalized Additive Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1443-1453, October.
    6. Jichao He & David W. Wanik & Brian M. Hartman & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou & Marina Astitha & Maria E. B. Frediani, 2017. "Nonparametric Tree‐Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 441-458, March.
    7. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2014. "Power Outage Estimation for Tropical Cyclones: Improved Accuracy with Simpler Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1069-1078, June.
    8. D. Wanik & E. Anagnostou & B. Hartman & M. Frediani & M. Astitha, 2015. "Storm outage modeling for an electric distribution network in Northeastern USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1359-1384, November.
    9. Salman, Abdullahi M. & Li, Yue & Stewart, Mark G., 2015. "Evaluating system reliability and targeted hardening strategies of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 319-333.
    10. Seung‐Ryong Han & David Rosowsky & Seth Guikema, 2014. "Integrating Models and Data to Estimate the Structural Reliability of Utility Poles During Hurricanes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1079-1094, June.
    11. LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi & Eto, Joseph H., 2006. "Cost of power interruptions to electricity consumers in the United States (US)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1845-1855.
    12. Feifei Yang & David W. Wanik & Diego Cerrai & Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, 2020. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Machine Learning-Based Power Outage Prediction Model Training: A Tool for Sustainable Storm Restoration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, February.
    13. Righi, Angela Weber & Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu & Wachs, Priscila, 2015. "A systematic literature review of resilience engineering: Research areas and a research agenda proposal," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 142-152.
    14. Johansson, Jonas & Hassel, Henrik & Zio, Enrico, 2013. "Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 27-38.
    15. Wang, Chi-hsiang & Leicester, Robert H. & Nguyen, Minh, 2008. "Probabilistic procedure for design of untreated timber poles in-ground under attack of decay fungi," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 476-481.
    16. Wu, Shaomin & Clements-Croome, Derek, 2005. "Preventive maintenance models with random maintenance quality," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 99-105.
    17. Sperstad, Iver Bakken & Kjølle, Gerd H. & Gjerde, Oddbjørn, 2020. "A comprehensive framework for vulnerability analysis of extraordinary events in power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    18. Berk A. Alpay & David Wanik & Peter Watson & Diego Cerrai & Guannan Liang & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2020. "Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-12, May.
    19. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2011. "Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations in the Event of Hurricanes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1897-1906, December.
    20. Salman, Abdullahi M. & Li, Yue & Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio, 2017. "Maintenance optimization for power distribution systems subjected to hurricane hazard, timber decay and climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 136-149.
    21. Ryan, Paraic C. & Stewart, Mark G. & Spencer, Nathan & Li, Yue, 2014. "Reliability assessment of power pole infrastructure incorporating deterioration and network maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 261-273.
    22. Winkler, James & Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo & Stein, Robert & Subramanian, Devika, 2010. "Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(4), pages 323-336.
    23. Tara C. Walsh & David W. Wanik & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou & Jonathan E. Mellor, 2020. "Estimated Time to Restoration of Hurricane Sandy in a Future Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-27, August.
    24. Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring & Seung‐Ryong Han, 2010. "Prestorm Estimation of Hurricane Damage to Electric Power Distribution Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1744-1752, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gallaher, Adam & Graziano, Marcello & Fiaschetti, Maurizio, 2021. "Legacy and shockwaves: A spatial analysis of strengthening resilience of the power grid in Connecticut," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Jalilpoor, Kamran & Oshnoei, Arman & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad, 2022. "Network hardening and optimal placement of microgrids to improve transmission system resilience: A two-stage linear program," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Moghadam, Mehdi Akbari & Bagheri, Sajad & Salemi, Amir Hosein & Tavakoli, Mohammad Bagher, 2023. "Long-term maintenance planning of medium voltage overhead lines considering the uncertainties and reasons for interruption in a real distribution network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    4. Venkateswaran V, Balaji & Saini, Devender Kumar & Sharma, Madhu, 2021. "Techno-economic hardening strategies to enhance distribution system resilience against earthquake," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    5. Hou, Guangyang & Muraleetharan, Kanthasamy K. & Panchalogaranjan, Vinushika & Moses, Paul & Javid, Amir & Al-Dakheeli, Hussein & Bulut, Rifat & Campos, Richard & Harvey, P. Scott & Miller, Gerald & Bo, 2023. "Resilience assessment and enhancement evaluation of power distribution systems subjected to ice storms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    6. Mansouri, Seyed Amir & Nematbakhsh, Emad & Ahmarinejad, Amir & Jordehi, Ahmad Rezaee & Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh & Marzband, Mousa, 2022. "A hierarchical scheduling framework for resilience enhancement of decentralized renewable-based microgrids considering proactive actions and mobile units," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Wang, Chong & Ju, Ping & Wu, Feng & Pan, Xueping & Wang, Zhaoyu, 2022. "A systematic review on power system resilience from the perspective of generation, network, and load," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Tian, Meng & Dong, Zhengcheng & Gong, Li & Wang, Xianpei, 2024. "Line hardening strategies for resilient power systems considering cyber-topology interdependence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Wang, Yifei & He, Rui & Tian, Zhigang, 2023. "Opportunistic condition-based maintenance optimization for electrical distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    10. Hasanzad, Fardin & Rastegar, Hasan, 2022. "Application of optimal hardening for improving resilience of integrated power and natural gas system in case of earthquake," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Shen, Zhonghui & Wei, Kai, 2021. "Stochastic model of tropical cyclones along China coast including the effects of spatial heterogeneity and ocean feedback," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Lu, Qin & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Integrating dynamic Bayesian network and physics-based modeling for risk analysis of a time-dependent power distribution system during hurricanes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    13. Aizpurua, J.I. & Stewart, B.G. & McArthur, S.D.J. & Penalba, M. & Barrenetxea, M. & Muxika, E. & Ringwood, J.V., 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting informed failure prognostics framework for improved RUL prediction under uncertainty: A transformer case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Cerrai, Diego & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Wanik, David & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2022. "A Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Model for Power Distribution System Infrastructure Hardening and Outage Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    15. Štěpán Kavan & Olga Dvořáčková & Jiří Pokorný & Lenka Brumarová, 2021. "Long-Term Power Outage and Preparedness of the Population of a Region in the Czech Republic—A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-14, November.
    16. Ghosh, Puspendu & De, Mala, 2023. "A stochastic investment decision making method for distribution system resilience enhancement considering automation, hardening and distributed energy resources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    17. Zhang, Jintao & Bagtzoglou, Yiannis & Zhu, Jin & Li, Baikun & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Fragility-based system performance assessment of critical power infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Cerrai, Diego & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Wanik, David & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2022. "A Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Model for Power Distribution System Infrastructure Hardening and Outage Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Xue, Jiayue & Mohammadi, Farshad & Li, Xin & Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa & Ou, Ge & Pu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Impact of transmission tower-line interaction to the bulk power system during hurricane," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Zhai, Chengwei & Chen, Thomas Ying-jeh & White, Anna Grace & Guikema, Seth David, 2021. "Power outage prediction for natural hazards using synthetic power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Dimitris N. Trakas & Mathaios Panteli & Nikos D. Hatziargyriou & Pierluigi Mancarella, 2019. "Spatial Risk Analysis of Power Systems Resilience During Extreme Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 195-211, January.
    5. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    6. Berk A. Alpay & David Wanik & Peter Watson & Diego Cerrai & Guannan Liang & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2020. "Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-12, May.
    7. Olukunle O. Owolabi & Deborah A. Sunter, 2022. "Bayesian Optimization and Hierarchical Forecasting of Non-Weather-Related Electric Power Outages," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, March.
    8. D. Brent McRoberts & Steven M. Quiring & Seth D. Guikema, 2018. "Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2722-2737, December.
    9. Otto, Räisänen & Susanne, Suvanto & Jouni, Haapaniemi & Jukka, Lassila, 2023. "Crown snow load outage risk model for overhead lines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    10. Jichao He & David W. Wanik & Brian M. Hartman & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou & Marina Astitha & Maria E. B. Frediani, 2017. "Nonparametric Tree‐Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 441-458, March.
    11. Feifei Yang & Diego Cerrai & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, 2021. "The Effect of Lead-Time Weather Forecast Uncertainty on Outage Prediction Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-16, July.
    12. Seung‐Ryong Han & David Rosowsky & Seth Guikema, 2014. "Integrating Models and Data to Estimate the Structural Reliability of Utility Poles During Hurricanes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1079-1094, June.
    13. Hossain, Eklas & Roy, Shidhartho & Mohammad, Naeem & Nawar, Nafiu & Dipta, Debopriya Roy, 2021. "Metrics and enhancement strategies for grid resilience and reliability during natural disasters," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    14. Tara C. Walsh & David W. Wanik & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou & Jonathan E. Mellor, 2020. "Estimated Time to Restoration of Hurricane Sandy in a Future Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-27, August.
    15. Lu, Qin & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Integrating dynamic Bayesian network and physics-based modeling for risk analysis of a time-dependent power distribution system during hurricanes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    16. Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "An adaptive robust framework for the optimization of the resilience of interdependent infrastructures under natural hazards," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(3), pages 1119-1136.
    17. Salman, Abdullahi M. & Li, Yue & Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio, 2017. "Maintenance optimization for power distribution systems subjected to hurricane hazard, timber decay and climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 136-149.
    18. Feifei Yang & David W. Wanik & Diego Cerrai & Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, 2020. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Machine Learning-Based Power Outage Prediction Model Training: A Tool for Sustainable Storm Restoration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, February.
    19. Zou, Qiling & Chen, Suren, 2019. "Enhancing resilience of interdependent traffic-electric power system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Gina L. Tonn & Seth D. Guikema & Celso M. Ferreira & Steven M. Quiring, 2016. "Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1936-1947, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.