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Estimated Time to Restoration of Hurricane Sandy in a Future Climate

Author

Listed:
  • Tara C. Walsh

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • David W. Wanik

    (Operations and Information Management, University of Connecticut, Stamford, CT 06901, USA)

  • Emmanouil N. Anagnostou

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Jonathan E. Mellor

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

Abstract

Power outage restoration following extreme storms is a complicated process that couples engineering processes and human decisions. Emergency managers typically rely on past experiences and have limited access to computer simulations to aid in decision-making. Climate scientists predict that although hurricane frequency may decrease, the intensity of storms may increase. Increased damage from hurricanes will result in new restoration challenges that emergency managers may not have experience solving. Our study uses agent-based modeling (ABM) to determine how restoration might have been impacted for 30 different scenarios of Hurricane Sandy for a climate in 2112 (Sandy2112). These Sandy2112 scenarios were obtained from a previous study that modeled how outages from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 might have been affected in the future as climate change intensified both wind and precipitation hazards. As the number of outages increases, so does the expected estimated time to restoration for each storm. The impact of increasing crews is also studied to determine the relationship between the number of crews and outage durations (or restoration curves). Both the number of outages and the number of crews impact the variability in time to restoration. Our results can help emergency managers and policy makers plan for future hurricanes that are likely to become stronger and more impactful to critical infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Tara C. Walsh & David W. Wanik & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou & Jonathan E. Mellor, 2020. "Estimated Time to Restoration of Hurricane Sandy in a Future Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-27, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:16:p:6502-:d:397907
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    References listed on IDEAS

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