IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v39y2019i1p195-211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial Risk Analysis of Power Systems Resilience During Extreme Events

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitris N. Trakas
  • Mathaios Panteli
  • Nikos D. Hatziargyriou
  • Pierluigi Mancarella

Abstract

The increased frequency of extreme events in recent years highlights the emerging need for the development of methods that could contribute to the mitigation of the impact of such events on critical infrastructures, as well as boost their resilience against them. This article proposes an online spatial risk analysis capable of providing an indication of the evolving risk of power systems regions subject to extreme events. A Severity Risk Index (SRI) with the support of real‐time monitoring assesses the impact of the extreme events on the power system resilience, with application to the effect of windstorms on transmission networks. The index considers the spatial and temporal evolution of the extreme event, system operating conditions, and the degraded system performance during the event. SRI is based on probabilistic risk by condensing the probability and impact of possible failure scenarios while the event is spatially moving across a power system. Due to the large number of possible failures during an extreme event, a scenario generation and reduction algorithm is applied in order to reduce the computation time. SRI provides the operator with a probabilistic assessment that could lead to effective resilience‐based decisions for risk mitigation. The IEEE 24‐bus Reliability Test System has been used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed online risk analysis, which was embedded in a sequential Monte Carlo simulation for capturing the spatiotemporal effects of extreme events and evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris N. Trakas & Mathaios Panteli & Nikos D. Hatziargyriou & Pierluigi Mancarella, 2019. "Spatial Risk Analysis of Power Systems Resilience During Extreme Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 195-211, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:1:p:195-211
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13220
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.13220?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven Quiring & Laiyin Zhu & Seth Guikema, 2011. "Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 365-390, July.
    2. Liu, Haibin & Davidson, Rachel A. & Apanasovich, Tatiyana V., 2008. "Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 897-912.
    3. Seung‐Ryong Han & Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2009. "Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts Using Generalized Additive Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1443-1453, October.
    4. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2014. "Power Outage Estimation for Tropical Cyclones: Improved Accuracy with Simpler Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1069-1078, June.
    5. D. Wanik & E. Anagnostou & B. Hartman & M. Frediani & M. Astitha, 2015. "Storm outage modeling for an electric distribution network in Northeastern USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1359-1384, November.
    6. Han, Seung-Ryong & Guikema, Seth D. & Quiring, Steven M. & Lee, Kyung-Ho & Rosowsky, David & Davidson, Rachel A., 2009. "Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 199-210.
    7. Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring & Seung‐Ryong Han, 2010. "Prestorm Estimation of Hurricane Damage to Electric Power Distribution Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1744-1752, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mishra, Dillip Kumar & Ghadi, Mojtaba Jabbari & Li, Li & Zhang, Jiangfeng & Hossain, M.J., 2022. "Active distribution system resilience quantification and enhancement through multi-microgrid and mobile energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    2. Hou, Hui & Tang, Junyi & Zhang, Zhiwei & Wang, Zhuo & Wei, Ruizeng & Wang, Lei & He, Huan & Wu, Xixiu, 2023. "Resilience enhancement of distribution network under typhoon disaster based on two-stage stochastic programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    3. Habibollah Raoufi & Vahid Vahidinasab & Kamyar Mehran, 2020. "Power Systems Resilience Metrics: A Comprehensive Review of Challenges and Outlook," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-24, November.
    4. Hossain, Eklas & Roy, Shidhartho & Mohammad, Naeem & Nawar, Nafiu & Dipta, Debopriya Roy, 2021. "Metrics and enhancement strategies for grid resilience and reliability during natural disasters," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    5. Minhui Qian & Ning Chen & Yuge Chen & Changming Chen & Weiqiang Qiu & Dawei Zhao & Zhenzhi Lin, 2021. "Optimal Coordinated Dispatching Strategy of Multi-Sources Power System with Wind, Hydro and Thermal Power Based on CVaR in Typhoon Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-35, June.
    6. Nikolaos Argyris & Valentina Ferretti & Simon French & Seth Guikema & Gilberto Montibeller, 2019. "Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 1-8, January.
    7. Younesi, Abdollah & Shayeghi, Hossein & Safari, Amin & Siano, Pierluigi, 2020. "Assessing the resilience of multi microgrid based widespread power systems against natural disasters using Monte Carlo Simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Umunnakwe, A. & Huang, H. & Oikonomou, K. & Davis, K.R., 2021. "Quantitative analysis of power systems resilience: Standardization, categorizations, and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Cerrai, Diego & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Wanik, David & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2022. "A Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Model for Power Distribution System Infrastructure Hardening and Outage Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. D. Brent McRoberts & Steven M. Quiring & Seth D. Guikema, 2018. "Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2722-2737, December.
    3. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C. & Wanik, David & Pensado, Osvaldo & Yuan, Hao & Zhang, Jintao, 2021. "Damage modeling framework for resilience hardening strategy for overhead power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    4. Jichao He & David W. Wanik & Brian M. Hartman & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou & Marina Astitha & Maria E. B. Frediani, 2017. "Nonparametric Tree‐Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 441-458, March.
    5. Xue, Jiayue & Mohammadi, Farshad & Li, Xin & Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa & Ou, Ge & Pu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Impact of transmission tower-line interaction to the bulk power system during hurricane," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Zhai, Chengwei & Chen, Thomas Ying-jeh & White, Anna Grace & Guikema, Seth David, 2021. "Power outage prediction for natural hazards using synthetic power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Gina L. Tonn & Seth D. Guikema & Celso M. Ferreira & Steven M. Quiring, 2016. "Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1936-1947, October.
    8. Berk A. Alpay & David Wanik & Peter Watson & Diego Cerrai & Guannan Liang & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2020. "Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-12, May.
    9. Otto, Räisänen & Susanne, Suvanto & Jouni, Haapaniemi & Jukka, Lassila, 2023. "Crown snow load outage risk model for overhead lines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    10. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2014. "Power Outage Estimation for Tropical Cyclones: Improved Accuracy with Simpler Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1069-1078, June.
    11. Feifei Yang & David W. Wanik & Diego Cerrai & Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, 2020. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Machine Learning-Based Power Outage Prediction Model Training: A Tool for Sustainable Storm Restoration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Seung‐Ryong Han & David Rosowsky & Seth Guikema, 2014. "Integrating Models and Data to Estimate the Structural Reliability of Utility Poles During Hurricanes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1079-1094, June.
    13. Wenjuan Sun & Paolo Bocchini & Brian D. Davison, 2020. "Applications of artificial intelligence for disaster management," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2631-2689, September.
    14. Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring & Seung‐Ryong Han, 2010. "Prestorm Estimation of Hurricane Damage to Electric Power Distribution Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1744-1752, December.
    15. Hui Hou & Shiwen Yu & Hongbin Wang & Yong Huang & Hao Wu & Yan Xu & Xianqiang Li & Hao Geng, 2019. "Risk Assessment and Its Visualization of Power Tower under Typhoon Disaster Based on Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, January.
    16. Tara C. Walsh & David W. Wanik & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou & Jonathan E. Mellor, 2020. "Estimated Time to Restoration of Hurricane Sandy in a Future Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-27, August.
    17. Peter L. Watson & Marika Koukoula & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2021. "Influence of the Characteristics of Weather Information in a Thunderstorm-Related Power Outage Prediction System," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Feifei Yang & Diego Cerrai & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, 2021. "The Effect of Lead-Time Weather Forecast Uncertainty on Outage Prediction Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Oh, Seongmun & Jufri, Fauzan Hanif & Choi, Min-Hee & Jung, Jaesung, 2022. "A study of tropical cyclone impact on the power distribution grid in South Korea for estimating damage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Olukunle O. Owolabi & Deborah A. Sunter, 2022. "Bayesian Optimization and Hierarchical Forecasting of Non-Weather-Related Electric Power Outages," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:1:p:195-211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.