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System dynamics assessment of mitigation strategies for power distribution poles subjected to hurricanes

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  • Jin Tian
  • Yue Li

Abstract

This paper presents a system dynamics-based method to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies for the replacement of power distribution poles subjected to hurricanes. The method demonstrates how the performance of poles distributed over a certain region, as well as the cost of maintenance and replacement, varies with time. Compared to a static assessment, the dynamic analysis provides more information for decision-making about replacement strategies, e.g., the changing trend of cost and performance in a period, and thus a potential trade-off between short-term and long-term benefits. Also, some variables and features that play an important role in cost-effectiveness are examined using sensitivity analysis, so that refinement of pole replacement strategies can be made. The model depicts the systemic and dynamic natures of long-term cost-effectiveness of pole maintenance and assists in the development of a better replacement strategy for multipole systems. In a case study, the model was applied to a typical region subjected to hurricanes, i.e., Miami-Dade County in Florida, USA. The simulation results from the model led to a maintenance strategy optimization that included both selection of class of poles and ways of replacement. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Tian & Yue Li, 2014. "System dynamics assessment of mitigation strategies for power distribution poles subjected to hurricanes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 1263-1285, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:70:y:2014:i:2:p:1263-1285
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0879-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Chi-hsiang & Leicester, Robert H. & Nguyen, Minh, 2008. "Probabilistic procedure for design of untreated timber poles in-ground under attack of decay fungi," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 476-481.
    2. Winkler, James & Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo & Stein, Robert & Subramanian, Devika, 2010. "Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(4), pages 323-336.
    3. Han, Seung-Ryong & Guikema, Seth D. & Quiring, Steven M. & Lee, Kyung-Ho & Rosowsky, David & Davidson, Rachel A., 2009. "Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 199-210.
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    1. Jin Tian & Yue Li, 2014. "Factors influencing cost-effectiveness of maintenance of power distribution poles subjected to hurricanes: a system-dynamics-based analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 633-650, June.
    2. Ryan, Paraic C. & Stewart, Mark G. & Spencer, Nathan & Li, Yue, 2014. "Reliability assessment of power pole infrastructure incorporating deterioration and network maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 261-273.

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