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Assessment of the tropical cyclone-induced risk on offshore wind turbines under climate change

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Listed:
  • Zeguo Wen

    (Sun Yat-Sen University
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Guangdong Research Center for Underground Space Exploitation)

  • Fuming Wang

    (Sun Yat-Sen University
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Guangdong Research Center for Underground Space Exploitation)

  • Jing Wan

    (Guangdong Academy of Safety Science and Technology)

  • Yuzhen Wang

    (Guangdong Academy of Safety Science and Technology)

  • Fan Yang

    (Sun Yat-Sen University
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Guangdong Research Center for Underground Space Exploitation
    The University of Western Australia)

  • Chengchao Guo

    (Sun Yat-Sen University
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Guangdong Research Center for Underground Space Exploitation)

Abstract

Assessing the risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) to offshore wind turbines (OWTs) can be a difficult task, mainly due to the lack of historical data. This study addresses this challenge by creating a synthetic TC hazard dataset that models 10,000 years of TC activity and developing a risk assessment framework based on this dataset. The present work uses full-track simulation to generate synthetic TCs and then employs the parametric wind field model and Mike 21 spectral wave model to simulate the corresponding wind and wave fields driven by the synthetic TCs. Additionally, the effect of climate change is incorporated into the synthetic TCs using a global climate model. A reliability analysis methodology is developed to measure the failure probability of OWTs. The proposed framework is applied to four representative sites in the South China Sea. The results indicate that the future climate will pose a greater risk for OWTs due to the increased intensity of TC-induced hazards. Additionally, proper maintenance of the yaw control system can effectively improve the safety of OWTs. The proposed framework can aid in enhancing the resilience of offshore wind energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeguo Wen & Fuming Wang & Jing Wan & Yuzhen Wang & Fan Yang & Chengchao Guo, 2024. "Assessment of the tropical cyclone-induced risk on offshore wind turbines under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(6), pages 5811-5839, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06390-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06390-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thit Oo Kyaw & Miguel Esteban & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2021. "Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1797-1818, April.
    2. Simona Meiler & Thomas Vogt & Nadia Bloemendaal & Alessio Ciullo & Chia-Ying Lee & Suzana J. Camargo & Kerry Emanuel & David N. Bresch, 2022. "Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Thit Oo Kyaw & Miguel Esteban & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2021. "Correction to: Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1819-1819, April.
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    5. Hallowell, Spencer T. & Myers, Andrew T. & Arwade, Sanjay R. & Pang, Weichiang & Rawal, Prashant & Hines, Eric M. & Hajjar, Jerome F. & Qiao, Chi & Valamanesh, Vahid & Wei, Kai & Carswell, Wystan & Fo, 2018. "Hurricane risk assessment of offshore wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 234-249.
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