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Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models

Author

Listed:
  • Simona Meiler

    (ETH Zurich
    Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss)

  • Thomas Vogt

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Nadia Bloemendaal

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Columbia University)

  • Alessio Ciullo

    (ETH Zurich
    Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss)

  • Chia-Ying Lee

    (Columbia University)

  • Suzana J. Camargo

    (Columbia University)

  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • David N. Bresch

    (ETH Zurich
    Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Simona Meiler & Thomas Vogt & Nadia Bloemendaal & Alessio Ciullo & Chia-Ying Lee & Suzana J. Camargo & Kerry Emanuel & David N. Bresch, 2022. "Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33918-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33918-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Suzana J. Camargo & Allison A. Wing, 2016. "Tropical cyclones in climate models," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 211-237, March.
    2. Chris Hewitt & Simon Mason & David Walland, 2012. "The Global Framework for Climate Services," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 831-832, December.
    3. A. Gettelman & D. N. Bresch & C. C. Chen & J. E. Truesdale & J. T. Bacmeister, 2018. "Projections of future tropical cyclone damage with a high-resolution global climate model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 575-585, February.
    4. Julio T. Bacmeister & Kevin A. Reed & Cecile Hannay & Peter Lawrence & Susan Bates & John E. Truesdale & Nan Rosenbloom & Michael Levy, 2018. "Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 547-560, February.
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    1. Samuel Lüthi & Christopher Fairless & Erich M. Fischer & Noah Scovronick & Armstrong & Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho & Yue Leon Guo & Yuming Guo & Yasushi Honda & Veronika Huber & Jan K, 2023. "Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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