IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v140y2017i3d10.1007_s10584-016-1862-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On bias correction in drought frequency analysis based on climate models

Author

Listed:
  • Yog Aryal

    (University of Wyoming)

  • Jianting Zhu

    (University of Wyoming)

Abstract

Assessment of future drought characteristics based on climate models is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we use three bias correction techniques with different emphases and complexities to investigate how they affect the results of drought frequency and severity based on climate models. The characteristics of drought are investigated using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data and the bias-corrected RCM historical simulations. Preserving mean and standard deviation of NARR precipitation is essential in drought frequency analysis. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Different timescales of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario compared to historical scenario are similar whether both scenarios are bias corrected or both are not bias corrected.

Suggested Citation

  • Yog Aryal & Jianting Zhu, 2017. "On bias correction in drought frequency analysis based on climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 361-374, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1862-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1862-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1862-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1862-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jianting Zhu & William Forsee & Rina Schumer & Mahesh Gautam, 2013. "Future projections and uncertainty assessment of extreme rainfall intensity in the United States from an ensemble of climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 469-485, May.
    2. C.-Y. Xu & V. P. Singh, 2004. "Review on Regional Water Resources Assessment Models under Stationary and Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(6), pages 591-612, December.
    3. Dae Jeong & Laxmi Sushama & M. Naveed Khaliq, 2014. "The role of temperature in drought projections over North America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 289-303, November.
    4. Chong-yu Xu, 1999. "Climate Change and Hydrologic Models: A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(5), pages 369-382, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Phuong Nguyen-Ngoc-Bich & Manh-Hung Le & Tan Phan-Van & Thanh Ngo-Duc & Tuan Tran-Bui-Anh & Long Trinh-Tuan & Huong Ngo-Thi-Thanh & Dat Pham-Tien & Fredolin T. Tangang & Liew Juneng & Faye Cruz & Jing, 2025. "How does bias correction impact simulated drought characteristics by Regional Climate Models?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-22, April.
    2. D. Carvalho & S. C. Pereira & R. Silva & A. Rocha, 2022. "Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-24, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Subimal Ghosh & Sudhir Katkar, 2012. "Modeling Uncertainty Resulting from Multiple Downscaling Methods in Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3559-3579, September.
    2. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    3. Manohar Arora & Pratap Singh & N. Goel & R. Singh, 2008. "Climate Variability Influences on Hydrological Responses of a Large Himalayan Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1461-1475, October.
    4. Rakotoarimanana Zy Harifidy & Rakotoarimanana Zy Misa Harivelo & Ishidaira Hiroshi & Magome Jun & Souma Kazuyoshi, 2022. "A Systematic Review of Water Resources Assessment at a Large River Basin Scale: Case of the Major River Basins in Madagascar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Jew Das & Nanduri V. Umamahesh, 2016. "Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5575-5587, December.
    6. Liem Tran & Robert O’Neill & Elizabeth Smith & Randall Bruins & Carol Harden, 2013. "Application of Hierarchy Theory to Cross-Scale Hydrologic Modeling of Nutrient Loads," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1601-1617, March.
    7. Yonghong Hao & Bibo Cao & Xiang Chen & Jian Yin & Ronglin Sun & Tian-Chyi Yeh, 2013. "A Piecewise Grey System Model for Study the Effects of Anthropogenic Activities on Karst Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1207-1220, March.
    8. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Shuhua Dong & Umar Waqas Liaqat & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Yuxiang Hu & Qaisar Saddique, 2016. "Recent Climate Trends and Drought Behavioral Assessment Based on Precipitation and Temperature Data Series in the Songhua River Basin of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4839-4859, October.
    9. Thanh Le & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2013. "Evaluating the Utility of IPCC AR4 GCMs for Hydrological Application in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3227-3246, July.
    10. Yaoyu Li & Kaixuan Li & Xifeng Liu & Zhimin Zhang & Zihao Gao & Qiang Wang & Guofang Wang & Wuping Zhang, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Soil Water Resources and Coupling of Crop Water Demand Under Dryland Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    11. Sandra Mourato & Madalena Moreira & João Corte-Real, 2015. "Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2377-2391, May.
    12. Muhammad Fraz Ismail & Bibi S. Naz & Michel Wortmann & Markus Disse & Laura C. Bowling & Wolfgang Bogacki, 2020. "Comparison of two model calibration approaches and their influence on future projections under climate change in the Upper Indus Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1227-1246, December.
    13. Paul Block & Kenneth Strzepek, 2011. "Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopia's Energy Needs Under a Changing Climate," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-090, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Jessup, Sébastien & Mailhot, Mélina & Pigeon, Mathieu, 2025. "Uncertainty in heteroscedastic Bayesian model averaging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 63-78.
    15. Kashish Sadhwani & T. I. Eldho, 2023. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Water Balance to Climate Change at River Basin Scale in Humid Tropics: Implications for a Sustainable Water Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, June.
    16. Heike Wanke & Armin Dünkeloh & Peter Udluft, 2008. "Groundwater Recharge Assessment for the Kalahari Catchment of North-eastern Namibia and North-western Botswana with a Regional-scale Water Balance Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1143-1158, September.
    17. B. Fiseha & S. Setegn & A. Melesse & E. Volpi & A. Fiori, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Upper Tiber River Basin Using Bias Corrected Regional Climate Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1327-1343, March.
    18. Martin Hanel & Magdalena Mrkvičková & Petr Máca & Adam Vizina & Pavel Pech, 2013. "Evaluation of Simple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Monthly Regional Climate Model Simulations with Respect to the Estimated Changes in Runoff in the Czech Republic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5261-5279, December.
    19. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.
    20. Xumin Zhang & Simin Qu & Jijie Shen & Yingbing Chen & Xiaoqiang Yang & Peng Jiang & Peng Shi, 2023. "Effect of Distinct Evaluation Objectives on Different Precipitation Downscaling Methods and the Corresponding Potential Impacts on Catchment Runoff Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1913-1930, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1862-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.