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Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Jew Das

    (National Institute of Technology)

  • Nanduri V. Umamahesh

    (National Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Evaluating the impact of climate change at river basin level has become essential for proper management of the water resources. In the present study, Godavari River basin in India is taken as study area to project the monthly monsoon precipitation using statistical downscaling. The downscaling method used is a regression based downscaling termed as fuzzy clustering with multiple regression. Among the atmospheric variables simulated by global circulation/climate model (GCM) mean sea level pressure, specific humidity and 500 hPa geopotential height are used as predictors. 1o × 1o gridded rainfall data over Godavari river basin are collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD). A statistical relationship is established between the predictors and predictand (monsoon rainfall) to project the monsoon rainfall for the future using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) over IMD grid points under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) scenarios of Fifth Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP 5). Downscaling procedure is applied to all 25 IMD grid points over the basin to find out the spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall for the future scenarios. For 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios results show an increasing trend. For scenario 8.5 rainfall showed a mixed trend with rainfall decreasing in the first thirty years of prediction and then increasing gradually over the next sixty years.

Suggested Citation

  • Jew Das & Nanduri V. Umamahesh, 2016. "Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5575-5587, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1549-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1549-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chong-yu Xu, 1999. "Climate Change and Hydrologic Models: A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(5), pages 369-382, October.
    2. Slobodan Simonovic & Lanhai Li, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Red River Basin Flood Protection System to Climate Variability and Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(2), pages 89-110, April.
    3. S. Samadi & Gregory Carbone & M. Mahdavi & F. Sharifi & M. Bihamta, 2013. "Statistical Downscaling of River Runoff in a Semi Arid Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 117-136, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lakhan Lal Mahato & Mukesh Kumar & Shakti Suryavanshi & Sudhir Kumar Singh & Deepak Lal, 2021. "Statistical investigation of long-term meteorological data to understand the variability in climate: a case study of Jharkhand, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(11), pages 16981-17002, November.
    2. Prabal Das & D. A. Sachindra & Kironmala Chanda, 2022. "Machine Learning-Based Rainfall Forecasting with Multiple Non-Linear Feature Selection Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6043-6071, December.
    3. Robinson Ploszai & Miriam Rita Moro Mine & Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel, 2022. "An Analysis of Non-stationary Drought Conditions in Parana State Based on Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3401-3415, August.
    4. Jew Das & Alin Treesa & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on a River Basin: Analysis of Uncertainty Using REA & Possibilistic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4833-4852, December.
    5. Jew Das & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Availability in a River Basin under CORDEX Simulated Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1399-1419, March.
    6. Qiumei Ma & Lihua Xiong & Chong-Yu Xu & Rongrong Li & Changming Ji & Yanke Zhang, 2021. "Flood Wave Superposition Analysis Using Quantitative Matching Patterns of Peak Magnitude and Timing in Response to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2409-2432, June.
    7. Gokmen Tayfur & Bihrat Onoz & Antonino Cancelliere & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Editorial: Water Resources Management in a Changing World: Challenges and Opportunities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5553-5557, December.
    8. Subhadarsini Das & Jew Das & N. V. Umamahesh, 2023. "A Non-Stationary Based Approach to Understand the Propagation of Meteorological to Agricultural Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2483-2504, May.

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