IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v27y2013i1p117-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Statistical Downscaling of River Runoff in a Semi Arid Catchment

Author

Listed:
  • S. Samadi
  • Gregory Carbone
  • M. Mahdavi
  • F. Sharifi
  • M. Bihamta

Abstract

Linear and non-linear statistical ‘downscaling’ study is applied to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in west Iran. This study aims to investigate and evaluate the more promising downscaling techniques, and provides a through inter comparison study using Karkheh catchment as an experimental site in a semi arid region for the years of 2040 to 2069. A hybrid conceptual hydrological model was used in conjunction with modeled outcomes from a General Circulation Model (GCM), HadCM3, along with two downscaling techniques, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to determine how future streamflow may change in a semi arid catchment. The results show that the choice of a downscaling algorithm having a significant impact on the streamflow estimations for a semi-arid catchment, which are mainly, influenced, respectively, by atmospheric precipitation and temperature projections. According to the SDSM and ANN projections, daily temperature will increase up to +0.58 0C (+3.90 %) and +0.48 0C (+3.48 %), and daily precipitation will decrease up to −0.1 mm (−2.56 %) and −0.4 mm (−2.82 %) respectively. Moreover streamflow changes corresponding to downscaled future projections presented a reduction in mean annual flow of −3.7 m^3/s and −9.47 m^3/s using SDSM and ANN outputs respectively. The results suggest a significant reduction of streamflow in both downscaling projections, particularly in winter. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling future flow at catchment scale as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability and changes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • S. Samadi & Gregory Carbone & M. Mahdavi & F. Sharifi & M. Bihamta, 2013. "Statistical Downscaling of River Runoff in a Semi Arid Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 117-136, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:117-136
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0170-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-012-0170-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-012-0170-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Subimal Ghosh & Sudhir Katkar, 2012. "Modeling Uncertainty Resulting from Multiple Downscaling Methods in Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3559-3579, September.
    2. Ryan MacDonald & James Byrne & Sarah Boon & Stefan Kienzle, 2012. "Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3053-3076, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. A. Casanueva & M. Frías & S. Herrera & D. San-Martín & K. Zaninovic & J. Gutiérrez, 2014. "Statistical downscaling of climate impact indices: testing the direct approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 547-560, December.
    2. Reyhaneh Rahimi & Hassan Tavakol-Davani & Mohsen Nasseri, 2021. "An Uncertainty-Based Regional Comparative Analysis on the Performance of Different Bias Correction Methods in Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2503-2518, June.
    3. Martin Hanel & Magdalena Mrkvičková & Petr Máca & Adam Vizina & Pavel Pech, 2013. "Evaluation of Simple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Monthly Regional Climate Model Simulations with Respect to the Estimated Changes in Runoff in the Czech Republic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5261-5279, December.
    4. Woonsup Choi & Sung Kim & Mark Lee & Kristina Koenig & Peter Rasmussen, 2014. "Hydrological Impacts of Warmer and Wetter Climate in Troutlake and Sturgeon River Basins in Central Canada," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5319-5333, December.
    5. Jew Das & Nanduri V. Umamahesh, 2016. "Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5575-5587, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gholamreza Roshan & AbdolAzim Ghanghermeh & Touraj Nasrabadi & Jafar Meimandi, 2013. "Effect of Global Warming on Intensity and Frequency Curves of Precipitation, Case Study of Northwestern Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1563-1579, March.
    2. Jew Das & Alin Treesa & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on a River Basin: Analysis of Uncertainty Using REA & Possibilistic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4833-4852, December.
    3. Lei Qiao & Yang Hong & Renee McPherson & Mark Shafer & David Gade & David Williams & Sheng Chen & Douglas Lilly, 2014. "Climate Change and Hydrological Response in the Trans-State Oologah Lake Watershed–Evaluating Dynamically Downscaled NARCCAP and Statistically Downscaled CMIP3 Simulations with VIC Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3291-3305, August.
    4. An Liu & Dunzhu Li & Liang Liu & Yuntao Guan, 2014. "Understanding the Role of Urban Road Surface Characteristics in influencing Stormwater Quality," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5217-5229, November.
    5. Roja Najafi & Masoud Reza Hessami Kermani, 2017. "Uncertainty Modeling of Statistical Downscaling to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Temperature and Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1843-1858, April.
    6. Anand Verdhen & Bhagu Chahar & Om Sharma, 2014. "Snowmelt Modelling Approaches in Watershed Models: Computation and Comparison of Efficiencies under Varying Climatic Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3439-3453, September.
    7. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    8. Fereshteh Modaresi & Shahab Araghinejad, 2014. "A Comparative Assessment of Support Vector Machines, Probabilistic Neural Networks, and K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithms for Water Quality Classification," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4095-4111, September.
    9. Gwo-Fong Lin & Ming-Jui Chang & Chian-Fu Wang, 2017. "A Novel Spatiotemporal Statistical Downscaling Method for Hourly Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3465-3489, September.
    10. Gwo-Fong Lin & Ming-Jui Chang & Jyue-Ting Wu, 2017. "A Hybrid Statistical Downscaling Method Based on the Classification of Rainfall Patterns," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 377-401, January.
    11. Woonsup Choi & Sung Kim & Mark Lee & Kristina Koenig & Peter Rasmussen, 2014. "Hydrological Impacts of Warmer and Wetter Climate in Troutlake and Sturgeon River Basins in Central Canada," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5319-5333, December.
    12. Yan-Fang Sang, 2013. "Improved Wavelet Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2807-2821, June.
    13. Xiaohui Yuan & Bin Ji & Hao Tian & Yuehua Huang, 2014. "Multiscaling Analysis of Monthly Runoff Series Using Improved MF-DFA Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3891-3903, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:117-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.